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What Might Happen? - 2020

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WHY SHOULD YOU CARE?

The 2010 Ten-Year Forecast Map of the Decade benchmarked the big forces that will shape the decade: The Carbon Economy; The Water Ecology; Adaptive Power; Cities in Transition and Molecular Identity.

 

WHAT ARE WE SEEING?

Shaping Tomorrow argued that turbulence ahead is likely as a raft of new technologies changes the shape of the economy, the workforce, and organisations. Companies need to plan ahead to understand the new skills and job loss implications to reduce the potential disruption.

Its survey into what might change by 2020 found that, primarily, the focus was on digital transformation. The transformation will come from the combined impacts of sensors, embedded intelligence and the internet of things plus robotics and new forms of automation - especially as these move increasingly into services; not to mention social media and yet to be developed tools enabling new forms of collaboration and of intelligence arising from big data analytics. But a host of other technologies will also drive change in markets and processes - nanotechnologies, biological sciences, 3D printing/ bio-printing.

More specifically, some of the impacts of these changes may include:

  • Making the workplace less and less place-specific, resulting gradually in less demand for commercial buildings, but increased demand for new organisational forms, new approaches to management and leadership, and new tools
  • Intensifying competition which will continue to put downward pressure on costs, requiring companies to do more with less, faster
  • Bringing robots into ever more corners of the economy, especially services starting with low level skill replacement - e.g. self-ordering/ paying via screen in shops or restaurants and automated distribution and warehousing using robots and drones, through to ever more sophisticated roles, and soon self-driving cars
  • Creating an open-sourced, networked economy by enhancing our capacity to collaborate within and between companies and countries blurring boundaries and even borders, with growing numbers of self-employed people creating a DIY economy (Do It Yourself) of sharing, creating and employment
  • Enabling the personalisation of and remote access to everything from MOOCS (Massively Open Online Courses) providing access to self-managed skill development to mobile devices for managing our personal and work lives.

According to further Shaping Tomorrow research [DK to summarise/update], we should expect huge technological advances that will be experienced by almost everyone on the planet, changes in driving habits and vehicle types, working modes, large scale migration to cities in many countries, continued growth and rising affluence in the developing world and the beginnings of distributed power: away from central power generation among many others. What is changing?

Technology

  • By 2020 there could be 26-50 billion things connected to the Internet.
  • Global Internet access is projected to reach almost 5 billion users by 2020.
  • Mobile connected devices are expected to increase globally from 6 billion in 2012 to 12 billion by 2020.
  • 75% of business will be digital businesses or preparing to become one.
  • There will be 40,000 Exabyte's of data by 2020.
  • Gartner predicts an increase in total spending on the Internet of Things (IoT) to climb from $69.5 billion next year to $263 billion in 2020.
  • Wireless technology enabled by advancement in cellular networks, satellite networks, RFID, Wi-FI and WiMax will lead to IT infrastructure and other services to be 80% wireless on a single integrated platform in 2020.
  • Data centers are expected to register the highest annual growth rate of 13 percent per year between 2011 and 2020.
  • More than 50 percent of analytics implementations will make use of event data streams generated from instrumented machines, applications, and/or individuals.
  • In 2020, 30% of new cars will have a "driverless mode".
  • Over 90% of cars sold will be connected.

Consumerism

  • Consumers will buy $1.4 trillion worth of goods and services in 2020.
  • Cloud service will be the primary IT consumption source for 90 percent of individuals and enterprises.
  • Global mobile broadband subscriptions are predicted to reach 8.4 billion by 2020.
  • Mobile data traffic is expected to rise at a CAGR of around 40 percent (2014-2020).
  • More than 45 million electric bicycles, cars, buses and trucks are expected to be sold annually. Electric vehicle sales could be up 25% by 2020.
  • China will be selling around three million luxury cars while the U.S. will be selling around 2.3 million.
  • Consumer data collected from wearable devices will drive 5% of sales from the global 1000 firms.

Growth

  • Nominal global GDP will increase by ~5% annually between 2012 and 2020.
  • Google Inc. will be the first $1 trillion company by market capitalization.
  • Cloud platforms will generate $44 billion in revenue by 2020.
  • Cloud computing could create $3.72 trillion in value by 2020.
  • Distributed power applications will account for 42 percent of global capacity additions.
  • Smart Cities will create huge business opportunities with a market value of USD1.5 trillion by 2020.
  • Assets owned by mass affluent and HNWI investors are expected to rise to more than $100 trillion and $76 trillion respectively by 2020.
  • Asian economies will account for 40 per cent of world GDP in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms by 2020.
  • Western Europe, which isn't expected to reach pre-financial crisis levels until 2020, accounts for only 12% of global spending now and is projected to generate less than 10% by 2025.
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