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What's Changing? - Conflict

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Every minute eight people flee to escape conflict and persecution, according to the UN.

It will be political conflict - not economics - that drives markets in 2018 and beyond - Ray Dalio quoted in Financial Times

Financier Ray Dalio warned in 2018 that the proportion of the vote captured by populist candidates had risen from about 7 per cent in 2010 to 35 per cent in 2017. This swing has apparently only ever happened once before, in the 1930s, just before the second world war.



Violence has been in decline over long stretches of time and we may be living in the most peaceful time in our species' existence - Steven Pinker

Archaeological studies show that societies in the past were very violent. Often more than 10% of deaths were the result of one person killing another. Ethnographic evidence also confirms that violence is very common in nonstate societies and drastically higher than in modern state societies.

Why is violence declining? One important change may be improving literacy, while countries with higher educational attainment in the past are more likely to have democratic - and generally therefore peaceful - political regimes today.

As the Theory of Democratic Peace predicts, there has been a corresponding decline of war deaths.

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