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What's Happening? - Risk

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Please see below selected recent intelligence about risk. This is a synthesis of major recent developments at competitors, business schools, thinktanks, media, commentators, and other key influencers in our external environment.

 

Q3 (July-August-September)

September 2016

  • Eurasia Group founder Ian Bremmer talked with IMF chief Christine Lagarde about managing risk in a complex world.

Managing Risk in a Volatile World - TGF 2016 - September 12 from IEFA on Vimeo.

 

June 2016

 

  • Eurasia Group noted that euroscepticism is increasingly evident in national politics: China has made clear its intention to further promote its semiconductor industry, focusing on overseas acquisitions this year; Germany's government has agreed to prioritise investment in digitisation; Turkey's new cabinet will prioritise near-term growth, weakening the medium- to long-term outlook; Canada's climate change plan, if approved, would put energy-intensive industry under significant pressure; the Korea Development Bank and the Export-Import Bank of Korea, are feeling the pinch from weak global demand.

 

See also:

 

 

May 2016

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

April 2016

 

 

  • A further rapid appreciation of the yen and a fresh fall for oil prices provided a markedly negative backdrop for global risk appetite, putting pressure on US and European equities, emerging market currencies and “peripheral” eurozone sovereign debt.

 

 

 

April 2016

 

 

  • Deloitte warned that strategic risks can do serious damage to an organisation, very quickly. These risks can compromise supply chains, facilities, technology, talent, capital, reputation, and basic drivers of value. Yet they fall outside most enterprise risk management programmes and are difficult to quantify, monitor, and manage. To address these risks, leaders need new perspectives and approaches. They need tools for scanning the environment, tracking developments, and visualising risk data, and they need to prepare effective responses, because responsibility for strategic risks resides at the C-suite and board levels.

 

 

 

 

 

March 2016

 

 

 

 

 

 

  • Eurasia Group's latest Political Risk Monitor for March 2016 summarised key trends in political risk and stability globally. Country-level political stability diverged significantly among emerging equity markets most exposed to spillover risks from China. South Africa, Brazil, Thailand, and Indonesia are less stable than their highly exposed counterparts South Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, and India. Political stability is less volatile this month, but the expected impact on the global economy continues to decline, and short-term political trajectory scores in key markets - including China and Japan - have declined. Among the largest oil exporters exposed to low prices, year-on-year political stability has improved markedly in Iran while declining slightly in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. Political stability in Russia has remained constant.

 

 

 

  • In PwC's own 19th Annual Global CEO study, 66% of CEOs saw more threats to their business than opportunities. To remain competitive, companies must pursue two parallel strategies: 1. Building agile and flexible risk management frameworks that can anticipate and prepare for the shifts that bring long-term success and 2. Building the resiliency that will enable those frameworks to mitigate risk events and keep the business moving toward its goals. This connection between risk resiliency1 and risk agility2 is at the heart of this year’s Risk in Review: Going the distance study. As our study shows, today’s most forward-looking companies have both the solid infrastructure and processes to help them weather any storm, as well as the flexibility to move quickly to meet new opportunities.

 

 

 

February 2016

 

 

 

 

  • According to Eurasia's Political Risk Monitor: February 2016, there is wide divergence in political capacity across emerging market oil exporters to respond to low oil prices. Governments in Mexico, Colombia, and to a lesser extent Russia have more political space and ability to take corrective fiscal measures than their counterparts in Venezuela, Nigeria and Ecuador. Though political stability is less volatile this month, the expected impact on the global economy is worsening. Political trajectories have deteriorated across many emerging and frontier markets including India, Mexico, and Nigeria. Among the emerging and frontier markets facing elections this year, political stability is likely to remain relatively stable. Ghana, Peru and the Philippines have experienced a slight improvement in stability over the past year, while Vietnam’s security environment has driven stability down slightly.

 

 

  • The Global Brief is the flagship product of Eurasia Group’s strategic alliance with PwC. It is a senior briefing service that monitors political events in PwC’s top 21 territories and highlights risks & opportunities in these markets- see  highlights from February’s Global Brief.

 

 

 

January 2016

 

 

  • Eurasia Group's latest Political Risk Monitor summarised key trends in political risk and stability from 2015 with a look forward into 2016. As in 2015, political stability will probably be more volatile in 2016 than in recent years, and it expects politics will have a more negative impact on the global economy over the next six months. Weighted by GDP, global political stability is most concentrated in the Asia Pacific region and appears set to remain so in 2016. Iran and Pakistan saw the largest gains in political stability last year, while Ukraine and Turkey endured the biggest declines.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  • For 2016, Eurasia Group believes that the unwinding of the US-led geopolitical order will accelerate. There is growing political division in a year with a presidential election in the US and a foundational political crisis for Europe. Russia, in decline, is led by an increasingly combative and resurgent Vladimir Putin. China is becoming far more powerful, but with a foreign policy that reflects primarily economic (though still strategic) national interests. The Middle East is the most vulnerable to a geopolitical leadership vacuum and is heading toward conflagration, believes Eurasia. There are six failed states across the broader region and more refugees than ever recorded. Oil economies are under strain. All of this will get worse in 2016. Europe will feel much of the pain-in economic costs, security vulnerability, and political blowback. The US, at the twilight of the Obama administration, will mostly stick to its knitting, since the Western hemisphere remains insulated from the lion’s share of geopolitical instability. In Asia, despite having many of the world’s strongest national leaders, helping manage these problems is not a priority. This all means a dramatically more fragmented world in 2016.

 

 

 

See also:

 

 

 

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