Please see below selected recent geopolitical-related change.
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Emerging markets are once again in the headlines, noted Chatham House. The IMF has announced a $50 billion Standby Agreement for Argentina, the Turkish lira is precarious and investors are unnerved by forthcoming elections in Brazil and Mexico. Against the backdrop of a strengthening dollar and rising interest rates in the US, the question is whether it is likely that there will be a new round of crises in emerging markets or whether the conditions are fundamentally different today from those in the 1980s and 1990s.
Few global issues have taken on more current importance than the future of the postwar, rule-based international order, noted Rand, adding that the roots of the order run back to the mid-1940s, when U.S. officials concluded that the United States should work to shape the postwar settlement in more structured, collaborative and rule-bound ways. The resulting global institutions, processes, habits, rules, and norms inspired the rise of regional organisations and became what we now know as the postwar international order. Today, however, warned Rand, that order is under unprecedented strain, both within the societies of its leading members and from revisionist countries determined to change some aspects of how the order functions.
Created in the 1970s, the Group of Seven (G7) has become increasingly irrelevant in a world of new emerging powers, claimed Chatham House. An institution that claims to represent the main democratic economies but excludes the likes of Brazil and India cannot possibly claim the legitimacy required to exercise global leadership.
- One of the most significant challenges to the strength of the liberal world order is the increasing influence and power of ambitious nations that reject aspects of the post-Cold War consensus. Notably, Iran, Russia and China have each at times used their clout to push back against Western influence in their regions. Chatham House examined the ways in which these three could potentially shape a new world order in the years to come, and asked: what is the current status of cooperation between these three nations, what opportunities are there in energy, trade and security to bring Iran, Russia and China together and crucially, what obstacles exist to these developing alliances?
- Geopolitical risks threaten growth, warned the EIU. 2018 will continue to be characterised by tightening monetary policy and credit conditions, increasing risks to global trade, and deeper geopolitical concerns in the Middle East.
- Nearly 40 percent of Brazilians would now back a military coup in their country to fight crime and corruption, according to a recent study by Vanderbilt University.
- India’s new military budget of $62 billion, unveiled in February, passes an important milestone - for the first time since gaining independence in 1947, India now spends more on defence than its former colonial power in the UK. Globally only America, China, Saudi Arabia and Russia have higher defence budgets than India today.