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Part consultancy, part thinktank, part social enterprise, Halcyon helps you prepare for and respond to personal, organisational and societal change.

Halcyon's 52:52:52 campaign on Twitter will help you address 52 issues with 52 responses over 52 weeks.

To be a catalyst is the ambition most appropriate for those who see the world as being in constant change, and who, without thinking that they control it, wish to influence its direction - Theodore Zeldin

A Mundane Comedy is Dominic Kelleher's new book, which will be published in early 2020. We will be publishing extracts on this site and across social media during the first quarter of 2020. Please feel free to contact us with any questions about the book.

What Happened? - Forecasting 2016

2015 saw major global trends, from the Greek sovereign debt crisis and the Chinese stock market meltdown, to the refugee exodus and of course the global terrorist attacks. And it was a record year for deal-making as business confidence recovered. So what will 2016 bring? Throughout January and February Halcyon put together this evolving index of significant forecasts for 2016.

 

META-LEVEL FORECASTS

 

For a "helicopter view" on a wide range of 2016 trends, see e.g.

 

 

 

For a more detailed listing of forecasts regarding the topics that EMEA MI monitors regularly, please see below.

 

 

 

2016 FORECASTS BY TOPIC

 

 

 

AFRICA

    

 

 

 

 

CYBERSECURITY

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  • In 'Cyber-security: bad and getting worse', The Economist warned that headline-grabbing breaches of computer networks mushroomed in 2015, from Ashley Madison to American government databases. The bill rocketed, probably into the hundreds of billions - a huge wealth transfer from law-abiding victims to cyber-criminals. Most attacks depended on exploiting carelessness with simple trickery, not computer wizardry. The online criminal economy is evolving fast, with crime-as-a-service businesses offering customers technical support and profit-sharing schemes. Though the internet is fundamentally insecure, the means to foil most attacks are readily available: keep data encrypted, on well-designed networks, with access and connections carefully managed—and stay vigilant for anomalies. The biggest vulnerability for managers is people (“carbon-based errors”), not machines. In 2016 politicians, regulators, insurance companies, credit-rating agencies, shareholders, customers, suppliers and employees will demand more care from those entrusted with other people’s data. But change will come only after a lot more pain.

 

 

 

 

ECONOMICS

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Global

 

 

  • The OECD now projects that the global economy will grow by 3% this year and 3.3% in 2017, which is well below long-run averages of around 3¾%. This is also lower than would be expected during a recovery phase for advanced economies, and given the pace of growth that could be achieved by emerging economies in convergence mode.

 

  • PwC's own Economics team launched its monthly Global Economy Watch (GEW) for January 2016. This being the start of the year, our economists focused on predictions for 2016. wC's economists have once again peered into the crystal ball to make their predictions for 2016, which include: G7 to grow at fastest rate since 2010, led by US and UK;  India will be the star performer; geopolitics will be top of policymakers' agendas. Issues: migrant crisis in Europe, crisis in the Middle East and UK's  EU membership.

 

  • The team also outlined its key predictions for the global economy in 2016. 2016 will mark the end of the Eurozone crisis. Our economists predict that peripheral economies will grow faster than core economies for the second year in a row. Even though the Greek crisis could flare up again, it should not lead to contagion to the rest of the bloc. Overall, Eurozone GDP could expand by around 1.6% in 2016, its fastest growth rate since 2011. A by-product of this trend is that the unemployment rate in the bloc will drop below 17 million.

 

  • But it's not all good news. Growth in the E7 emerging economies will slow. India will be the star performer while China GDP growth will ease to 6.5%. China’s growth in manufacturing and exports will continue to slow gradually, however business leaders will continue to move into higher value added areas of manufacturing at home and overseas. The internationalisation of the renminbi is also expected to continue, although it will continue to be bumpy.

 

  • Finally, as our CEO survey also predicts, it is geopolitics (and not economics) that will at the top of the agenda. The key issues on the radar are the migrant crisis in Europe, which could flare up again, the Middle East crisis and the referendum on UK membership of the European Union. If you want to read more on specific predictions please visit our website.

 

  • 6 predictions for 2016 from Davos leaders: China’s economy will probably slow down – but it won’t be as bad as some suggest; a peace deal for Cyprus; Europe’s refugee crisis will get worse before it gets better; renewable energy will be even cheaper; oil prices will bounce back; and the world is getting better and will continue to do so.

 

  • The EIU has global GDP growth accelerating from 2.4% in 2015 to 2.6% in 2016, and so should be starting the year in a brighter mood. However, a look behind the numbers actually gives a fairly gloomy picture for the year ahead. To illustrate, none of the four countries showing the biggest acceleration in growth in 2016 are much to get excited about. All shrank by more than 10% in 2015 and are recovering from deep crises. In Yemen the EIU forecasts growth will accelerate from -38% in 2015 to +4.5% as the trajectory of the war stabilises, Sierra Leone goes from -25% to +0.8% as the impact of Ebola fades, Macau's recession softens from -23% to a less punishing -2.7% as China's anti-graft campaign continues, while war-torn Ukraine leaves its year of -10.5% growth behind to grow by a still-sluggish +1%. So where, then, is the good news?! Of the world's largest 50 or so economies, the one with the biggest turnaround coming in 2016 is Iran. Russia, Brazil and Japan may also improve in 2016, although the first two may remain in recession.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  • In its World Economic Outlook Update, the International Monetary Fund [IMF] contracted its global GDP forecast for both 2016 and 2017 by 0.2%. The IMF highlights "three key transitions" that "continue to influence the global outlook": the gradual slowdown and rebalancing of economic activity in China away from investment and manufacturing toward consumption and services; lower prices for energy and other commodities, and a gradual tightening of monetary policy in the United States in the context of a resilient U.S. recovery as several other major advanced economy central banks continue to ease monetary policy".

 

  • The sharing movement is evolving quickly and in many directions. The growth of platform and worker co-ops, increased awareness of the commons, the evolution of coworking, an explosion of tech-enabled sharing services, and more are opening up promising if not challenging frontiers.What will 2016 bring? Shareable asked 10 experts to offer their predictions in their sharing-related areas of expertise.

 

See also:

 

 

 

APA - East Cluster

 

 

  • In 'What might happen in China in 2016?', McKinsey noted that millions of people being relocated from cities, fewer jobs, greater centralisation, and more movie blockbusters are just some of the major trends in the Middle Kingdom this year.

 

 

 

 

 

  • Real growth in Emerging Asia (Southeast Asia, China and India) will experience mild moderation in 2015, at 6.5%, and is projected to moderate gradually over the medium-term (2016-20) to an average of 6.2% annually. Growth in China will continue to slow while growth in India picks up to one of the highest levels in the region. Growth in the ASEAN region will be similar and is projected to average 4.6% in 2015 and 5.2% over 2016-20, led by growth in the Philippines and Vietnam among the ASEAN-5 and the CLM (Cambodia, Lao PDR and Myanmar) countries. Private consumption will be a large contributor to overall growth, while exports will contribute less than during most of the prior decade.

 

  • The slowdown in China, weaker commodity prices and the prospect of tighter external financing conditions are dimming the growth outlook for developing East Asia-Pacific, the World Bank warned, a region that has long been a bright spot in the world economy. It downgraded its 2015, 2016 and 2017 growth projections for developing East Asia-Pacific to 6.5, 6.4 and 6.3% respectively.

 

  • The Philippines and Vietnam are projected to show robust growth at an annual average rate of around 6% over 2016-20. Vietnam’s growth has been led by a rapid acceleration of fixed investment, strong foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows and robust consumption. The Philippines has benefitted from strong momentum in domestic demand, buoyed by growing remittances. The Philippines also benefits from an improvement in its attractiveness as a FDI destination.

 

 

APA - West Cluster

 

 

 

EMEA

 

  • Heading into 2016, the Eurozone recovery is becoming broader-based and more self-sustaining. After initially being led by consumer spending in 2014–15, conditions are now right for the rebound in capital investment that should underpin a steady (if unspectacular) recovery into the medium term. EY expects GDP growth of 1.5% in 2015, before it picks up to 1.8% in 2016 and 2017.

 

 

 

 

 

GOVERNANCE

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GROWTH

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INDUSTRIES

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Cross-industry

 

 

  • The first of PwC's unique annual collection of industry perspectives are now available, addressing major trends, challenges and opportunities for companies to consider in 2016 and beyond. Written by our Strategy& partners, these are personal viewpoints from our experts who have developed their views from industry discussions, observations of shifting market dynamics and skilled analysis of data in the sectors served by Strategy&. 14 industries are covered in the Perspectives, ranging from Automotive through to Wealth Management, and they are being released in stages; the first four are available now and further reports follow in February. You can see the first set of Industry Perspectives here.

 

 

 

 

The Economist Intelligence Unit, Industries in 2016 examined how businesses in the coming year will benefit from an improved global backdrop, whilst stressing the importance of preparing for expected volatility in emerging markets.  The report brings together analysis and forecasts for six key global industries - Automotive, Consumer Goods and Retail, Energy, Financial Services, Healthcare and Telecommunications - identifying strategic business issues for the year ahead. The EIU's views of individual industries in 2016:

 

  • Automotive. The global vehicle market continues to expand after its short-lived blip in 2009. Moribund developing markets should regain ground during 2016, but growth will be steady rather than spectacular. The Volkswagen scandal and the fight against terrorism will add to the risks. What else to watch for ... Self-Driving Cars, Fuel Cell Cars and Apple CarPlay

 

  • Consumer goods/retail. Most retail markets will expand steadily in 2016, consumers and retailers alike could be vulnerable to crises of confidence. Many of the problems that faced retailers in 2015 will be carried over into 2016. Mainstream retailers will again struggle with falling profit margins and shrinking market share owing to the combined growth of discount and online retail channels. What else to watch for ... Singles Day goes global, Pure players get physical and Onslaught of the beer monster

 

  • Energy. A long-term energy transition is under way. 2016 will be characterised by lower fossil fuel prices and fast growth in the use of renewable energy. The coming period will be characterised by a more rapid decline in the carbon intensity of the global economy and faster growth in the deployment of renewables. Although attractively cheap oil, natural gas and coal are here for the short- to medium-term, the shift towards lower-carbon energy sources will prove far longer-lasting. What else to watch for ... Iranian oil, Spotlight on India and Coal's last stand

 

  • Financial Services. The industry will be lifted by technological innovations, an expanded footprint in poor countries, economic recovery in advanced nations and by taking on a bigger role in providing economic security for ageing populations. The rise of financial technology or FinTech (mostly from US and UK base). FinTech firms claim to be disrupting industry incumbents and are enjoying skyhigh valuations in private markets.What else to watch for ... Internet-only lenders, Shift to simplicity and Bad bank book

 

  • Healthcare. Healthcare spending will accelerate in most countries in 2016. But with cost controls also tightening, the pressure to reduce costs and maximise tax savings will only intensify. In dollar terms, healthcare spending will pick up in 2016 in most regions, driven by growing and ageing populations, the rollout of new drugs and technologies, and efforts to expand access to health. However, cost controls are expected to tightened, in all markets as budgets are stretched to cover either over-generous universal healthcare systems or expanded coverage for the poor. What else to watch for ... Drug shake-up, Carrots to sticks and Alzheimer's attach

 

  • Telecoms. More digital disruption in store for the telecoms industry and players will have to innovate to survive. There will be more changes in 2016 with increasing take-up of mobile phones driving growth across the sector, pushing fixed line connectivity into terminal decline even as the reach of the internet spreads. The demand for mobile broadband is also forcing operators to spend heavily on infrastructure and pushing governments to permit greater consolidation. It is also propelling investment and interest in connected devices, which in turn fuel the rise of “big data” and cloud computing. What else to watch for ... Mobile video, Regulation and consolidation and fibre race.

 

 

CIPS

 

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  • 2016 will be the year of omnichannel, claimed Forrester. Retailers are going to make the technology enhancements to give customers the power to purchase when and where they want. Stores won’t disappear — and the digital store will make big strides. Read Forrester's retail predictions for 2016.

 

 

See also:

 

 

 

 

 

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  • Strategy& published its oil and gas trends for 2016: Key messages: how #oil & gas execs can balance today's cost & investments w/ future carbon constraints: http://strat.to/XlL5x ; Oil barrel prices are down >60% from 2014 peak. Oil & gas companies need #strategythatworks to weather the storm: http://strat.to/XlL5x; drones inspect remote oil pipelines. Oil companies must use tech to lower emissions & costs. http://strat.to/XlL5x #strategythatworks Strategy&’s 3 steps for #oil & #gas execs to combat low prices & carbon constraints: via @strategyand http://strat.to/XlL5x ; with oil prices below $40 a barrel and increasing carbon constraints, just slashing costs is myopic. Oil & gas execs need to reassess legacy areas and strategy. http://strat.to/XlL5x; oil & gas companies should refocus on energy efficiency to face the “new normal.” http://strat.to/XlL5x and oil & gas companies' challenges—CO2 constraints and low prices—require a new strategy that works. http://strat.to/XlL5x

 

 

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  • Accenture Consulting published its key trends of Healthcare IT in 2015.  Accenture surveyed health executives to construct its forecasts and arrived at five key trends for the next years. Accenture also found that "Silver surfers" [i.e. digital savvy seniors over 65] are "more interested in using digital tools to manage their health than they are in using them to manage their healthcare costs".

 

 

 

 

Financial Services

 

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  • Capgemini provided a high-level analysis of the top 10 trends that are expected to impact the banking industry in 2016.

 

 

 

 

 

 

In terms of PwC's own 2016 FS forecasts:

 

  • What’s top of Insurance, Asset Management and Banking & Capital Market CEO agendas for 2016? PwC’s 2016 global CEO Survey out Feb, reveals all: pwc.to/1nqKTPT
  • Coming in Feb – PwC’s 2016 global CEO Survey lifts the lid on just how optimistic Financial Services CEOs are on business growth in 2016. Click pwc.to/1nqKTPT for more
  • Are CEOs across the Insurance, Banking & Capital Markets and Asset Management sectors confident of economic growth, thereby their own in 2016? #PwC reveals all early Feb in its CEO Survey. Keep an eye here for more: pwc.to/1nqKTPT
  • At a time when customers’ needs are changing, what do Financial Services CEOs plan to put in place to compete? Find out in PwC’s global CEO Survey out early Feb: pwc.to/1nqKTPT
  • In which Financial services sector is CEO perception of FinTech as a threat to business growth highest? PwC’s 2016 global CEOs survey, out early Feb, reveals: pwc.to/1nqKTPT
  • Do CEOs across the Insurance, Asset Management and Banking & Capital Markets sectors view Cyber Risk as being high on their list of concerns? Data from PwC’s global CEO survey puts you in the picture: pwc.to/1nqKTPT

 

 

TICE

 

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  • Deloitte Global released its Technology, Media & Telecoms (TMT) predictions for 2016. Cognitive technology and graphene research are among the key trends identified by the firm, “Deloitte Global predicts that by end-2016 more than 80 of the world’s 100 largest enterprise software companies will have integrated cognitive technologies into their products, a 25% increase on 2015. In 2016 we expect the cognitive technologies that will be the most important will be machine learning, natural language processing & speech recognition. Deloitte Global predicts the total value of the graphene materials market in 2016 is likely to be in the low tens of millions of dollars, which is less than an hour’s projected revenues from smartphone sales. Graphene has been called a ‘wonder material’, as it offers an unrivalled combination of tensile, electrical, thermal and optical properties. These qualities could enable a vast array of breakthrough applications, from ultra-lightweight manufactured products and flexible displays to high-capacity batteries and memory chips to improved desalinization filters and even contact lenses that enable infrared vision."

 

 

 

INTELLIGENCE

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INVESTMENT

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LEADERSHIP

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  • The leadership challenge for 2016 will continue to be the pace of global change and the rate at which technology changes, argued Forbes. The two are a cruelly matched pair that will forever challenge any leader’s judgement and decision-making, as both significantly impact a company’s scalability, the timeframe to scale and the value it delivers along the spectrum of its growth. The secret to overcoming challenges is to anticipate them to the point that their inherent complexity is minimised. This means getting ahead of the power curve rather than looking at it from the low ground—something too many organisational leaders delay until it’s too late.

 

 

 

MARKETING & COMMUNICATION

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  • In 'CMOs will step up to lead customer advocacy in 2016' Forrester argued that brand management is now about managing customers’ experiences. It says to CMOs: champion the cultural change in your firm and re-architect your communications approach - while prepping for a future when personalisation is expected.

 

 

See also:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

OPERATIONS

 

 

 

REGULATION

 

 

  • Deloitte's Top 10 for 2016: Our outlook for financial markets regulation update predicted the key strategic regulatory issues that the FS industry will face in the coming year. Each topic is accompanied by a view on the sector impacts across retail banking, capital markets, insurance and investment management.

 

 

 

RISK

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  • Eurasia Group’s 2016 Year-Ahead Outlook found that, barring a few exceptions, political trends next year are likely to be characterised by a “slow burn.” Geopolitical risk flowing from the Ukraine crisis has diminished, but there are new and rising risks in Asia and the Middle East. Eurasia Group’s report begins by flagging three macro themes that inform its global assessment, then offers forecasts for 2016 from its regional and sector-specific practices. The practice reports, including Asia, Eurasia, Europe, Latin America, Middle East & North Africa, North America, Africa, and Global Energy & Natural Resources, identify the key political drivers that will define the business and investment environment.

 

  • Eurasia first wrote about the g-zero world five years ago. It’s now fully upon us, and the unwinding of the US-led geopolitical order will accelerate in 2016. There is growing political division in a year with a presidential election in the US and a foundational political crisis for Europe. Russia, in decline, is led by an increasingly combative and resurgent Vladimir Putin. China is becoming far more powerful, but with a foreign policy that reflects primarily economic (though still strategic) national interests. The Middle East is the most vulnerable to a geopolitical leadership vacuum and is heading toward conflagration, believes Eurasia. There are six failed states across the broader region and more refugees than ever recorded. Oil economies are under strain. All of this will get worse in 2016. Europe will feel much of the pain-in economic costs, security vulnerability, and political blowback. The US, at the twilight of the Obama administration, will mostly stick to its knitting, since the Western hemisphere remains insulated from the lion’s share of geopolitical instability. In Asia, despite having many of the world’s strongest national leaders, helping manage these problems is not a priority. This all means a dramatically more fragmented world in 2016.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TECHNOLOGY

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See also:

 

Overall technology trends

 

 

 

3D trends

 

  • 3D Print Hub's  '3D Printing Trends December 2015' report provides a comprehensive and unmatched perspective on the current state of the 3D printing industry. Based on data from our 3D Hubs community, which includes over 24,500 printers in over 150 countries, and thousands of 3D print orders every month, we are excited to show you the printers people love and what’s trending in the world of 3D printing.

 

 

Artificial Intelligence trends

 

 

 

Big Data trends

 

 

 

Cloud trends

 

  • Tableau published its top 10 cloud trends for 2016, arguing that there is a growing realisation that data as a critical business asset can be very efficiently (and cost-effectively) stored in the cloud. The database, integration, and analytics markets are now in a race to understand how each can ultimately capitalize on this shift.

 

 

Digital trends

 

 

 

 

See also:

 

 

 

Fintech trends

 

 

 

Internet of Things trends

 

 

 

Robotic trends

 

 

 

 

WORK

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