China

Please see below key recent developments concerning trade:

August 2018

• The recently announced tariffs that the US is imposing on Mexico, the EU, and China are expected to affect companies across multiple industries, from food production to motor vehicles to construction and more. Executives around the world are discussing what the trade war means for their companie - CB Insights analysed what they're saying.
• Figures released by the OECD report that a large repatriation of earnings by US parent companies has contributed to a substantial fall in global foreign direct investment (FDI) outflows. These figures show that in the first quarter of 2018 global outflows fell by 44% from $US242bn to $US136bn. 

July 2018

40%: The percentage of patients reported to have responded to one of the most advanced CRISPR cancer therapy studies to be tested in China. China is far ahead of the US in CRISPR cancer studies due to its less stringent approval requirements, but the US and Europe are set to see their first human trials of the gene-editing technique this year. With potentially transformative implications across medicine, agriculture, and even chemical products, CB Insights' 5,200-word CRISPR deep dive unpacks the science behind the technology, its applications, controversies it’s stirred up, and where CRISPR may take us next. 

Please see below selected recent intelligence about China. This is a synthesis of major recent developments at corporates, business schools, thinktanks, media, commentators, and other key influencers.

Q3 (July-August-September) 2016 

• The former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund warned that a slowdown in China is the greatest threat to the global economy, claiming that a "hard landing" for one of the main engines of global growth could not be ruled out.
• However, China’s industrial profits jumped the most in three years. They rose 19.5% from a year ago to 534.8 billion yuan ($80.2 billion), according to the National Bureau of Statistics. The data suggests further stabilisation in manufacturing and a greater ability of companies to pay off debts.
• Indeed, China’s economy grew by 6.7% in the second quarter, the same as in the previous three months and a healthier pace than many had expected given the country’s stock market crash and depreciation of the yuan. Investment in infrastructure has surged and personal consumption has been strong.
• Although there is some suggestion that Chinese private sector is losing confidence in economic prospects, China’s producer price index was its least bad in four years. Government data tracking the cost of manufactured goods out the factory gate showed prices declined just 0.8% through the month of August, indicating that the flagging economy might be stabilizing. Consumer price inflation climbed 1.3%, slightly below July’s increase.
• Yet China’s July economic data provided more evidence of a slowdown. Investment grew at its slowest pace in more than 16 years in the January-July period. Retail sales in July increased 10.2%, versus a forecast 10.5% and down from 10.6% in June. Industrial output for the month rose 6% from a year earlier, slowing from 6.2% in June and missing the forecast of 6.1%.
• China’s “One Belt, One Road” project aims to make central Asia more connected to the world, yet even before the initiative was formally announced China had helped to redraw the energy map of the region. However, China is not the only investor in central Asian connectivity. Multilateral financial institutions, such as the Asian Development Bank, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and the World Bank have long been investing in the region’s infrastructure. The Kazakh government has its own $9bn stimulus plan, directing money from its sovereign wealth fund to infrastructure investment. Other countries, including Turkey, the US, and the EU have also made improving Eurasian connectivity a part of their foreign policy. 

June 2016

• China wants a role at the global economic governance table, commensurate with its size and trajectory. Existing bodies have been slow to reform. In a new paper, the Royal Institute for International Relations, argued that “In areas where the overhaul of existing bodies proves difficult, China has begun to back the creation of parallel nstitutions tailored to the needs of emerging powers.”

Please see below selected pre-2016 intelligence about China. This is a synthesis of major recent developments at corporates, business schools, thinktanks, media, commentators, and other key influencers.

December 2015

• In 2016 China will once again be hugely important in determining the path of the world economy and the direction of capital flows. But this time the story will not be about a slowing economy. As recent industrial production numbers indicate, measures to stimulate the economy are having an impact. Investment is picking up in response to stronger infrastructure investment, especially from local governments, reflecting the easing of financing constraints on them. State-owned enterprises have also been investing more heavily.

• Equities across the globe were undermined by losses in mainland China after a near 3 per cent drop on the Shanghai exchange triggered fresh commodity losses. As many markets reopened following the Christmas weekend break, China’s Shanghai Composite fell 2.6 per cent after weak industrial profit data for November dashed hopes of an end-of-year rally. The data, released on Sunday, showed profits earned by Chinese industrial companies fell 1.4 per cent last month - a sixth-consecutive month of year-on-year declines.

• China’s activity data was stronger than expected in November, with factory output growth picking up to a five-month high, signalling that a flurry of stimulus measures from Beijing may have put a floor under a fragile economy. Still, analysts believe more policy steps are needed to weather nagging headwinds from a cooling property market, risks from high domestic debt levels, and weak global demand as financial markets brace for interest rate rises by the US Federal Reserve.

• Meanwhile, foreign direct investment (FDI) into the Chinese mainland rose 1.9 percent year on year to 64.9 billion yuan ($10.4 billion) in November, the Ministry of Commerce said. The growth slowed from a 4.2 percent rise in October. or the first 11 months, FDI, which excludes investment in the financial sector, stood at 704.3 billion yuan, up 7.9 percent from the same period last year.

• Activity in China's services sector expanded at a slower pace in November as new orders weakened. The Caixin/Markit Purchasing Managers' Index fell to 51.2 in November from a three-month high in October of 52.0. A reading above 50 points signifies growth on a monthly basis, while one below that points to a contraction.New business rose at a slower pace of 51.1 - down from 52.9 in October - showing weaker domestic and external demand while employment in services rose only marginally, with the smallest increase in three months.

• China's foreign trade dropped 4.5%year on year to 2.16 trillion yuan (337 billion U.S. dollars) in November, the ninth-consecutive monthly decline. China’s foreign-exchange hoard meanwhile fell in November to its lowest level in more than two years, reigniting concerns about Beijing’s ability to stem the outflow of capital from the world’s second-largest economy.

• A report by Standard & Poor’s warned that creditworthiness at China’s big state firms has worsened in recent years. The ratio of gross debt to earnings has increased to more than five on average.

• The latest snapshot of manufacturing activity by the Chinese Federation for Logistics and Purchasing showed activity slipping for the fourth month in a row, falling further below the 50 no-change mark to 49.6 in November from 49.8 the previous month. Economists at ANZ Bank said the data could prompt yet another rate cut from China's policymakers.

Please see below selected recent intelligence about Asia Pacific. Please contact Dominic Kelleher with any questions.  

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June 2015

• The Financial Times published an FT Focus - Asia special edition.

• According to BankofAmericaMerrilLynch, for Asia Pacific’s most influential CFOs, 2015 will be a year of growth but will require a heightened level of courage, commitment and care to deliver on expectations. Change will be inevitable. Challenges will be multi-faceted. Risk and market volatility will remain a reality. But with an actively managed finance strategy and a clear understanding of the diverse headwinds, opportunities will materialise. These are some of the projections of Asia Pacific’s leading CFOs.

• integrAsian, a new Economist Intelligence Unit study, sponsored by ANZ Banking Group, looked at how trade and investment ties between Asian economies are evolving, and the opportunities as well as risks this process is creating for the private sector. This report is based on a survey of senior executives at 525 companies in Australia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Singapore and Taiwan, as well as interviews with business leaders and experts. It also examines how growing integration affects the business strategies of firms in the region through profiles of companies in three industries: information technology, consumer electronics and energy.

• KPMG Australia announced a record 51 new partners and executive directors. The breakdown by line of service is as follows: Advisory 50% (dominated by management consulting and deal advisory); Private Enterprise 18%; Tax 18%; Audit 10% and Shared Services 4%.

• A stronger-than-expected jump in mining exports helped Australia’s economy to expand by 2.3% in the first quarter compared with the same three months last year. Joe Hockey, the Treasurer, said the figures reflected the “deep resilience” of the economy. But with consumer spending still weak, the Reserve Bank of Australia erred on the side of caution and kept interest rates on hold at a record low of 2%.

• China will increase support for cross-border e-commerce as the world's second-largest economy shifts from manufacturing to higher-value services, the government said. China's e-commerce industry has been booming in recent years, with companies like Alibaba Group Holding Ltd and JD.com Inc benefiting from a rising middle class with more disposable income. The government released policy guidelines that include tax policies aimed at boosting domestic consumption and pilot projects to ease overseas payments, according to a statement posted on the central government's website www.gov.cn.

• According to Eurasia Group, China’s leadership is undertaking an historic reform agenda, seeking to overhaul political and corporate governance in order to shift toward more sustainable growth. To facilitate this process, senior leaders will work to strengthen their internal standing within the government and to bolster popular legitimacy by demonstrating progress on issues such as the environment and income inequality.

• China aimed to pledge a multi-billion dollar investment in Europe’s new infrastructure fund at a summit in late June in Brussels, Reuters reported. The exact sum has yet to be decided. In return for the investment in Europe, China is expected to ask Europe to invest in its revival of the Silk Road. The “One Belt, One Road” initiative is expected to build energy and communications links such as railways, highways, oil and gas pipelines, power grids, Internet networks, maritime and other infrastructure links across Central, West and South Asia to as far as Greece.

• The Economist Intelligence Unit now expects the Chinese economy to grow by 6.8% in 2015, as rising incomes support household spending growth but as slowing growth in investment - especially in property- holds back the pace of expansion. falling global oil prices and excess local industrial capacity will cause average consumer price inflation to slow to 1.2% in 2015, from 2.1% in 2014. The renminbi is expected to weaken against the US dollar in 2015, depreciating on an annual average basis for the first time since 1994.

• Japan’s economy grew in the first quarter at a much faster rate than had been thought. A revised estimate found that GDP expanded by 3.9% at an annualised rate, up from the 2.4% that was first reported last month. Inventories remained very high, prompting more warnings about a possible oversupply of goods in the economy, but the upward revision also reflected a surge in business investment.

• Deloitte appointed its first Asia Pacific leader to come from Japan. Yoichiro Ogawa, who has a 30-year career with Deloitte Japan, will serve a four-year term. In his role, Ogawa will be responsible for driving market leadership and quality across the region, strengthening the firm's brand and client services and identifying further growth opportunities while working with member firm leaders to enhance bonds and collaboration. In addition to the Asia Pacific regional leadership role, Ogawa will also become the Deloitte global managing director of regions and will serve as a member of the network's executive and operating committees. Ogawa's appointment is part of the new leadership team set up by Punit Renjen, Deloitte's global chief executive as of 1 June 2015.