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Halcyon's 52:52:52 campaign on this site and on Twitter will start in 2021. It will help you address 52 issues with 52 responses over 52 weeks.

Part consultancy, part thinktank, part social enterprise, Halcyon helps you prepare for and respond to personal, organisational and societal change.

A Mundane Comedy is Halcyon's new book. Extracts will appear on this site and across social media from the beginning of 2021. Please get in touch with any questions about the book or related Halcyon services.

Halcyon monitors change for more than 150 key elements of life.

Politics

What may change in 2021?

2021

 

Please see below a range of 2021 outlooks and forecasts - grouped by topics including:

  • Climate, Conflict, Consumption, Demographics, Economics, Energy, Food, Freedom, Health, Innovation, Politics, Purpose, Risk, Space, Sustainability, Technology, Travel, Trade, Trust, Values and Work.

Please revisit this page regularly for updates throughout the early weeks of 2021 and see also:

 

CLIMATE

What's Changing? - Politics
Politics
Halcyon In Future 8 January 2021

 

Please see below selected recent  - mainly geo - political-related change.

 

See also:

 

January 2021

POLITICS

What's Changing? - Democracy

Democracy

 

Please see below selected recent democracy-related change.

 

See also:

 

December 2020

  • “For the first time this century, among countries with more than 1m people, there are now fewer democracies than there are non-democratic regimes", claimed the Oxford university historian Timothy Garton Ash in an essay on The Future of Liberalism. The observation reflects what Stanford University’s Larry Diamond has labelled the “democratic recession”.

 

November 2020

What's Changing? - Belt & Road Initiative

Belt & Road Initiative

 

Introduction

China's Belt and Road infrastructure initiative is one of the most ambitious geopolitical projects ever. By 2027, it aims to dish out an estimated $1.3 trillion in loans, around ten times what the US spent on the Marshall Plan in the aftermath of World War II. As China increases its investment in the West, will countries' loyalty shift toward Beijing? About 80 countries have already joined, and dozens more are flirting with the idea. For a world that badly needs more and better infrastructure, Belt and Road is a good thing

What's Changing? - Emerging Markets
Emerging Markets
Halcyon In Business 10 December 2020

 

Please see below selected recent emerging markets-related change. (Until mid-2018 the focus was primarily on Africa.)

 

See also:

 

December 2020

  • The Lebanese economy, waylaid by financial and political crises on top of the pandemic, is set to contract by 19.4 percent in 2020, according to the World Bank. Next year things hardly get better, with a contraction of 13.2 percent expected in 2021.

 

On Waterloo
blog image
Halcyon In Kal… 1 October 2020

 

Living, as I have done for most of the past 17 years, just 5km or so from the battlefields of Waterloo, means that I have visited the site often.

Only recently, however, following last year's commemorations of the 200th anniversary of the battle, and a visit in March 2016 to the excellent new visitor centre, did its full ongoing significance become clearer to me, not least the suffering of the wounded and dead, many of whose final resting places have never been discovered...RIP all who fought there.

See also:

What May Change This Year?
2019
Halcyon In Kal… 23 January 2019

 

Please see below an evolving set of forecasts for 2019. This is work in progress, due for completion before the end of January 2019. 

 

Introduction