What May Change? - 2016

2015 saw major global trends, from the Greek sovereign debt crisis and the Chinese stock market meltdown, to the refugee exodus and of course the global terrorist attacks. And it was a record year for deal-making as business confidence recovered. So what will 2016 bring? Throughout January and February Halcyon put together this evolving index of significant forecasts for 2016.

META-LEVEL FORECASTS

For a "helicopter view" on a wide range of 2016 trends, see e.g.

For a more detailed listing of forecasts regarding the topics that EMEA MI monitors regularly, please see below.

2016 FORECASTS BY TOPIC

AFRICA

The "Africa rising" narrative will still prevail in 2016, said The Economist but there are pitfalls ahead, while Oxford Analytica warned that political and economic risks will coincide with high-risk African polls, pointing to a volatile 2016.

Nevertheless, across Africa, the emerging middle class, even as it fends for itself in terms of public services, is demanding more of the state, claimed The Economist Elections held in Nigeria in 2015 were reportedly the cleanest in decades, largely because people with phones recorded the tally in thousands of voting stations, tweeting or posting the results so that they couldn’t be rigged by the incumbent party. With presidential or legislative elections coming up in 2016 in several countries, this new class could find itself on a political roller-coaster too.

CYBERSECURITY

In 'Cyber-security: bad and getting worse', The Economist warned that headline-grabbing breaches of computer networks mushroomed in 2015, from Ashley Madison to American government databases. The bill rocketed, probably into the hundreds of billions - a huge wealth transfer from law-abiding victims to cyber-criminals. Most attacks depended on exploiting carelessness with simple trickery, not computer wizardry. The online criminal economy is evolving fast, with crime-as-a-service businesses offering customers technical support and profit-sharing schemes. Though the internet is fundamentally insecure, the means to foil most attacks are readily available: keep data encrypted, on well-designed networks, with access and connections carefully managed—and stay vigilant for anomalies. The biggest vulnerability for managers is people (“carbon-based errors”), not machines. In 2016 politicians, regulators, insurance companies, credit-rating agencies, shareholders, customers, suppliers and employees will demand more care from those entrusted with other people’s data. But change will come only after a lot more pain.

Intel Security released its McAfee Labs Threats Predictions Report, which predicts key developments on the cyber threat landscape in 2016, and provides unique insights into the expected nature of that landscape through 2020, as well as the IT security industry’s likely response. The 2016 threat predictions run the gamut of trends, from the likely threats around ransomware, attacks on automobile systems, infrastructure attacks, and the warehousing and sale of stolen data.

ECONOMICS

Global

The OECD now projects that the global economy will grow by 3% this year and 3.3% in 2017, which is well below long-run averages of around 3¾%. This is also lower than would be expected during a recovery phase for advanced economies, and given the pace of growth that could be achieved by emerging economies in convergence mode.

PwC's own Economics team launched its monthly Global Economy Watch (GEW) for January 2016. This being the start of the year, our economists focused on predictions for 2016. wC's economists have once again peered into the crystal ball to make their predictions for 2016, which include: G7 to grow at fastest rate since 2010, led by US and UK; India will be the star performer; geopolitics will be top of policymakers' agendas. Issues: migrant crisis in Europe, crisis in the Middle East and UK's EU membership.

The team also outlined its key predictions for the global economy in 2016. 2016 will mark the end of the Eurozone crisis. Our economists predict that peripheral economies will grow faster than core economies for the second year in a row. Even though the Greek crisis could flare up again, it should not lead to contagion to the rest of the bloc. Overall, Eurozone GDP could expand by around 1.6% in 2016, its fastest growth rate since 2011. A by-product of this trend is that the unemployment rate in the bloc will drop below 17 million.

But it's not all good news. Growth in the E7 emerging economies will slow. India will be the star performer while China GDP growth will ease to 6.5%. China’s growth in manufacturing and exports will continue to slow gradually, however business leaders will continue to move into higher value added areas of manufacturing at home and overseas. The internationalisation of the renminbi is also expected to continue, although it will continue to be bumpy.

Finally, as our CEO survey also predicts, it is geopolitics (and not economics) that will at the top of the agenda. The key issues on the radar are the migrant crisis in Europe, which could flare up again, the Middle East crisis and the referendum on UK membership of the European Union. If you want to read more on specific predictions please visit our website.

6 predictions for 2016 from Davos leaders: China’s economy will probably slow down – but it won’t be as bad as some suggest; a peace deal for Cyprus; Europe’s refugee crisis will get worse before it gets better; renewable energy will be even cheaper; oil prices will bounce back; and the world is getting better and will continue to do so.

The EIU has global GDP growth accelerating from 2.4% in 2015 to 2.6% in 2016, and so should be starting the year in a brighter mood. However, a look behind the numbers actually gives a fairly gloomy picture for the year ahead. To illustrate, none of the four countries showing the biggest acceleration in growth in 2016 are much to get excited about. All shrank by more than 10% in 2015 and are recovering from deep crises. In Yemen the EIU forecasts growth will accelerate from -38% in 2015 to +4.5% as the trajectory of the war stabilises, Sierra Leone goes from -25% to +0.8% as the impact of Ebola fades, Macau's recession softens from -23% to a less punishing -2.7% as China's anti-graft campaign continues, while war-torn Ukraine leaves its year of -10.5% growth behind to grow by a still-sluggish +1%. So where, then, is the good news?! Of the world's largest 50 or so economies, the one with the biggest turnaround coming in 2016 is Iran. Russia, Brazil and Japan may also improve in 2016, although the first two may remain in recession.

In The Great Malaise Continues , Project Syndicate noted that optimists say that the global economy will perform better in 2016 than it did in 2015, but warned that may turn out to be true, but only imperceptibly so, unless the problem of insufficient global aggregate demand is finally addressed.

According to Reuters, the world economy in 2016 may be set for another year like 2015, with modest growth in developed economies offsetting persistent weakness elsewhere but generating very little inflation and keeping interest rates low.

Developing economies last year recorded their slowest growth since the immediate aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis and are facing the prospect of an equally grim 2016, the World Bank warned.

The IMF chief warned of “disappointing and uneven” global growth, with emerging economies set to be buffeted by a fifth consecutive year of slowing expansion. Christine Lagarde set a sombre tone for the gathering, warning that worldwide expansion will fall short of last year’s figures and there will be only a modest growth in 2016. She subsequently added that global growth in 2016 will be disappointing and uneven. The global economy’s medium-term growth prospects have weakened as well, because potential growth is being held back by low productivity, ageing populations, and the legacies of the global financial crisis. High debt, low investment, and weak banks continue to burden some advanced economies, especially in Europe; and many emerging economies continue to face adjustments after their post-crisis credit and investment boom.

Moody's Investors Service in September cut its 2016 growth forecast in G20 economies to 2.8%, down 0.3 percentage point from the company's call less than two weeks ago. China is projected to grow 6.3% in 2016, down from 6.5% previously. Citigroup also cut its projection for world growth in 2016 to 3.1% from 3.3%. However, finance ministers from the G20 nations insisted the global economy has nothing to fear from a China slowdown as they tried to dispel the pall of gloom that has been cast by sagging growth and market turmoil. G20 representatives, accounting for 85% of the world’s output, expressed confidence in the economic forecast in spite of mounting evidence that global growth is falling short of expectations.

2016 will be a tug of war between recession and recovery - claimed Business Insider.

The annual special business report Emerging Markets in 2016-2017 by CEEMEA Business Group explained the current business challenges, the reasons for business slowdown in so many emerging markets, outlooks for different regions and key markets as well as advice for corporate budgeting and strategies.

In its World Economic Outlook Update, the International Monetary Fund [IMF] contracted its global GDP forecast for both 2016 and 2017 by 0.2%. The IMF highlights "three key transitions" that "continue to influence the global outlook": the gradual slowdown and rebalancing of economic activity in China away from investment and manufacturing toward consumption and services; lower prices for energy and other commodities, and a gradual tightening of monetary policy in the United States in the context of a resilient U.S. recovery as several other major advanced economy central banks continue to ease monetary policy".

The sharing movement is evolving quickly and in many directions. The growth of platform and worker co-ops, increased awareness of the commons, the evolution of coworking, an explosion of tech-enabled sharing services, and more are opening up promising if not challenging frontiers.What will 2016 bring? Shareable asked 10 experts to offer their predictions in their sharing-related areas of expertise.

See also:

APA - East Cluster

In 'What might happen in China in 2016?', McKinsey noted that millions of people being relocated from cities, fewer jobs, greater centralisation, and more movie blockbusters are just some of the major trends in the Middle Kingdom this year.

China started 2016 with two mini stock market crashes and a 0.5% currency devaluation. So for Business Insider it came as no surprise that Charlene Chu, an analyst known the world over for making sense of China's complex shadow-banking system, has a grim outlook for the year. Her reports are considered one of Wall Street's most valuable commodities. The latest is ominously titled "Something's Gotta Give." From Chu's perspective, the something that must give in 2016 is going to have to be the Chinese yuan.

CNN published 4 things to watch in China next year.

The World Economic Forum asked: China and the global economy: what will 2016 bring?

In 2016 China will once again be hugely important in determining the path of the world economy and the direction of capital flows. But this time the story will not be about a slowing economy. As recent industrial production numbers indicate, measures to stimulate the economy are having an impact. Investment is picking up in response to stronger infrastructure investment, especially from local governments, reflecting the easing of financing constraints on them. State-owned enterprises have also been investing more heavily.

Real growth in Emerging Asia (Southeast Asia, China and India) will experience mild moderation in 2015, at 6.5%, and is projected to moderate gradually over the medium-term (2016-20) to an average of 6.2% annually. Growth in China will continue to slow while growth in India picks up to one of the highest levels in the region. Growth in the ASEAN region will be similar and is projected to average 4.6% in 2015 and 5.2% over 2016-20, led by growth in the Philippines and Vietnam among the ASEAN-5 and the CLM (Cambodia, Lao PDR and Myanmar) countries. Private consumption will be a large contributor to overall growth, while exports will contribute less than during most of the prior decade.

The slowdown in China, weaker commodity prices and the prospect of tighter external financing conditions are dimming the growth outlook for developing East Asia-Pacific, the World Bank warned, a region that has long been a bright spot in the world economy. It downgraded its 2015, 2016 and 2017 growth projections for developing East Asia-Pacific to 6.5, 6.4 and 6.3% respectively.

The Philippines and Vietnam are projected to show robust growth at an annual average rate of around 6% over 2016-20. Vietnam’s growth has been led by a rapid acceleration of fixed investment, strong foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows and robust consumption. The Philippines has benefitted from strong momentum in domestic demand, buoyed by growing remittances. The Philippines also benefits from an improvement in its attractiveness as a FDI destination.

APA - West Cluster

R&A Analyst Note: "2016 US Economic Outlook" (01 04 2016)

EMEA

Heading into 2016, the Eurozone recovery is becoming broader-based and more self-sustaining. After initially being led by consumer spending in 2014–15, conditions are now right for the rebound in capital investment that should underpin a steady (if unspectacular) recovery into the medium term. EY expects GDP growth of 1.5% in 2015, before it picks up to 1.8% in 2016 and 2017.

In 'Hope and fear in the endless Greek crisis', the Financial Times argued that there is a slim chance that economic recovery will take hold in 2016.

The EIU believes that the Italian fiscal deficit will remain around 3% of GDP and the public debt will reach 137% of GDP in 2015. After a protracted recession the economy is recovering. Real GDP is set to expand by 0.7% in 2015 and 1% in 2016.

GOVERNANCE

In 'Top Board Priorities for 2016', EY argued that or ganisations are faced with many critical challenges- including rapidly changing technology, environmental risks, regulatory and legal requirements, major shifts in markets, ethical breaches, and big data and cybersecurity issues - that threaten their long-term success and sustainability. Directors have a unique opportunity to step forward and proactively oversee the development and implementation of effective, long-term strategies responsive to these challenges. As a result, the trend of expanding board agendas will continue in 2016.

GROWTH

This year saw the value of mergers and acquisitions hit a record global high of £2.79 trillion and the upward trend is projected to continue in 2016 as confidence improves across boardrooms worldwide. A Raconteur report examined the top five big-money sectors for M&A, the rise of tech startups with a pre-planned exit strategy and the volatility of business valuation. It also explored the building pressure on private equity managers to put cash to work, and the increasing importance of due diligence and compliance.

Deloitte's Financial Services M&A Predictions report explored the key drivers of M&A activity for 2016.

INDUSTRIES

Cross-industry

The first of PwC's unique annual collection of industry perspectives are now available, addressing major trends, challenges and opportunities for companies to consider in 2016 and beyond. Written by our Strategy& partners, these are personal viewpoints from our experts who have developed their views from industry discussions, observations of shifting market dynamics and skilled analysis of data in the sectors served by Strategy&. 14 industries are covered in the Perspectives, ranging from Automotive through to Wealth Management, and they are being released in stages; the first four are available now and further reports follow in February. You can see the first set of Industry Perspectives here.

An improved global economic backdrop in 2016 should see businesses benefit from growth but preparation for volatility in emerging markets is also crucial. For many companies, China's slowdown and continued global pressure on prices could undermine the benefits brought by the US and European recovery. A new special report published by The Economist Intelligence Unit, 'Industries in 2016', brings together analysis and forecasts forkey industries, identifying key strategic business issues in the year ahead.

Trendwatching's summary of innovations – and the trends they represent – claimed to show what consumers will want next, and to present actionable innovation opportunities for 2016.

See also: Morgan Stanley Commodity Manual: Key Themes from 2015 Will Impact 2016.

The Economist Intelligence Unit, Industries in 2016 examined how businesses in the coming year will benefit from an improved global backdrop, whilst stressing the importance of preparing for expected volatility in emerging markets. The report brings together analysis and forecasts for six key global industries - Automotive, Consumer Goods and Retail, Energy, Financial Services, Healthcare and Telecommunications - identifying strategic business issues for the year ahead. The EIU's views of individual industries in 2016:

Automotive. The global vehicle market continues to expand after its short-lived blip in 2009. Moribund developing markets should regain ground during 2016, but growth will be steady rather than spectacular. The Volkswagen scandal and the fight against terrorism will add to the risks. What else to watch for ... Self-Driving Cars, Fuel Cell Cars and Apple CarPlay

Consumer goods/retail. Most retail markets will expand steadily in 2016, consumers and retailers alike could be vulnerable to crises of confidence. Many of the problems that faced retailers in 2015 will be carried over into 2016. Mainstream retailers will again struggle with falling profit margins and shrinking market share owing to the combined growth of discount and online retail channels. What else to watch for ... Singles Day goes global, Pure players get physical and Onslaught of the beer monster

Energy. A long-term energy transition is under way. 2016 will be characterised by lower fossil fuel prices and fast growth in the use of renewable energy. The coming period will be characterised by a more rapid decline in the carbon intensity of the global economy and faster growth in the deployment of renewables. Although attractively cheap oil, natural gas and coal are here for the short- to medium-term, the shift towards lower-carbon energy sources will prove far longer-lasting. What else to watch for ... Iranian oil, Spotlight on India and Coal's last stand

Financial Services. The industry will be lifted by technological innovations, an expanded footprint in poor countries, economic recovery in advanced nations and by taking on a bigger role in providing economic security for ageing populations. The rise of financial technology or FinTech (mostly from US and UK base). FinTech firms claim to be disrupting industry incumbents and are enjoying skyhigh valuations in private markets.What else to watch for ... Internet-only lenders, Shift to simplicity and Bad bank book

Healthcare. Healthcare spending will accelerate in most countries in 2016. But with cost controls also tightening, the pressure to reduce costs and maximise tax savings will only intensify. In dollar terms, healthcare spending will pick up in 2016 in most regions, driven by growing and ageing populations, the rollout of new drugs and technologies, and efforts to expand access to health. However, cost controls are expected to tightened, in all markets as budgets are stretched to cover either over-generous universal healthcare systems or expanded coverage for the poor. What else to watch for ... Drug shake-up, Carrots to sticks and Alzheimer's attach

Telecoms. More digital disruption in store for the telecoms industry and players will have to innovate to survive. There will be more changes in 2016 with increasing take-up of mobile phones driving growth across the sector, pushing fixed line connectivity into terminal decline even as the reach of the internet spreads. The demand for mobile broadband is also forcing operators to spend heavily on infrastructure and pushing governments to permit greater consolidation. It is also propelling investment and interest in connected devices, which in turn fuel the rise of “big data” and cloud computing. What else to watch for ... Mobile video, Regulation and consolidation and fibre race.

CIPS

2016 will be the year of omnichannel, claimed Forrester. Retailers are going to make the technology enhancements to give customers the power to purchase when and where they want. Stores won’t disappear — and the digital store will make big strides. Read Forrester's retail predictions for 2016.

Meanwhile, retailers are increasingly prioritizing their digital efforts this year, and according to 2016 research, unified commerce is one of their primary focuses.

See also:

Strategy& published its oil and gas trends for 2016: Key messages: how #oil & gas execs can balance today's cost & investments w/ future carbon constraints: http://strat.to/XlL5x ; Oil barrel prices are down >60% from 2014 peak. Oil & gas companies need #strategythatworks to weather the storm: http://strat.to/XlL5x; drones inspect remote oil pipelines. Oil companies must use tech to lower emissions & costs. http://strat.to/XlL5x #strategythatworks Strategy&’s 3 steps for #oil & #gas execs to combat low prices & carbon constraints: via @strategyand http://strat.to/XlL5x ; with oil prices below $40 a barrel and increasing carbon constraints, just slashing costs is myopic. Oil & gas execs need to reassess legacy areas and strategy. http://strat.to/XlL5x; oil & gas companies should refocus on energy efficiency to face the “new normal.” http://strat.to/XlL5x and oil & gas companies' challenges—CO2 constraints and low prices—require a new strategy that works. http://strat.to/XlL5x

Deloitte's 2016 edition of' 'Tracking the trends' explored not only well-trodden themes, but also ancillary themes miners must take into account if they hope to navigate an increasingly uncertain future: Going lean – Operational excellence remains front and centre; Innovation: the next generation – Preparing for exponential change; China’s painful transition – Looking for the silver lining; Adjusting to the new normal – What goes down must come up; The shifting global energy mix – Preparing for inevitable change; Engagement party – Changing the nature of stakeholder dialogues; The capital crisis – Starved of finance, miners struggle to survive; A taxing time for miners – A global tax reset challenges yesterday’s tax management; The M&A paradox – To buy or not to buy; that is the question and Safe, secure and healthy – An expanded view of corporate and personal welfare.

Accenture Consulting published its key trends of Healthcare IT in 2015. Accenture surveyed health executives to construct its forecasts and arrived at five key trends for the next years. Accenture also found that "Silver surfers" [i.e. digital savvy seniors over 65] are "more interested in using digital tools to manage their health than they are in using them to manage their healthcare costs".

See also PwC's own Top Healthcare Issues for 2016 and Top 10 Medical Technologies of 2016 from ScienceRoll.

Financial Services

Capgemini provided a high-level analysis of the top 10 trends that are expected to impact the banking industry in 2016.

Deloitte published 'What's on the horizon for Financial Services in 2016?' See also Deloitte's On the horizon: '2016 hot topics for IT internal audit in financial services' report uncovered how internal audit departments in FS continue to operate within an evolving environment of new regulatory requirements, emerging risks and expanding stakeholder expectations

EY published EY: Global banking outlook 2016 - transforming talent.

KPMG published KPMG: Banking and capital markets - top trends for M&A in 2016

In terms of PwC's own 2016 FS forecasts:

What’s top of Insurance, Asset Management and Banking & Capital Market CEO agendas for 2016? PwC’s 2016 global CEO Survey out Feb, reveals all: pwc.to/1nqKTPT
Coming in Feb – PwC’s 2016 global CEO Survey lifts the lid on just how optimistic Financial Services CEOs are on business growth in 2016. Click pwc.to/1nqKTPT for more
Are CEOs across the Insurance, Banking & Capital Markets and Asset Management sectors confident of economic growth, thereby their own in 2016? #PwC reveals all early Feb in its CEO Survey. Keep an eye here for more: pwc.to/1nqKTPT
At a time when customers’ needs are changing, what do Financial Services CEOs plan to put in place to compete? Find out in PwC’s global CEO Survey out early Feb: pwc.to/1nqKTPT
In which Financial services sector is CEO perception of FinTech as a threat to business growth highest? PwC’s 2016 global CEOs survey, out early Feb, reveals: pwc.to/1nqKTPT
Do CEOs across the Insurance, Asset Management and Banking & Capital Markets sectors view Cyber Risk as being high on their list of concerns? Data from PwC’s global CEO survey puts you in the picture: pwc.to/1nqKTPT

TICE

Deloitte Global released its Technology, Media & Telecoms (TMT) predictions for 2016. Cognitive technology and graphene research are among the key trends identified by the firm, “Deloitte Global predicts that by end-2016 more than 80 of the world’s 100 largest enterprise software companies will have integrated cognitive technologies into their products, a 25% increase on 2015. In 2016 we expect the cognitive technologies that will be the most important will be machine learning, natural language processing & speech recognition. Deloitte Global predicts the total value of the graphene materials market in 2016 is likely to be in the low tens of millions of dollars, which is less than an hour’s projected revenues from smartphone sales. Graphene has been called a ‘wonder material’, as it offers an unrivalled combination of tensile, electrical, thermal and optical properties. These qualities could enable a vast array of breakthrough applications, from ultra-lightweight manufactured products and flexible displays to high-capacity batteries and memory chips to improved desalinization filters and even contact lenses that enable infrared vision."

INTELLIGENCE

Business intelligence continues to be one of the fastest-moving areas in the enterprise. And not only is the technology moving fast, but the techniques people are using to drive adoption and get value from their data are multiplying. Among these trends are an increasing appetite for more advanced analytics to answer deeper questions, and new approaches emerging for governance of self-service BI. The potential for innovation is far from over. A new Tableau paper highlighted the top trends in business intelligence for 2016.

INVESTMENT

Divergence is the key theme for investors as they consider their asset allocations for the beginning of 2016, argued the Financial Times Several major divergencies have developed this year that will in future directly affect drivers of portfolio construction, such as expected return generation, volatility and asset class correlations.

Dividend payouts last year globally rose 9.9% on an underlying basis - excluding one-off special dividends and the impact of currency movements - and are expected to rise again in 2016 although at slower pace of 3.3% according to data compiled by Henderson Global Investors.

LEADERSHIP

The leadership challenge for 2016 will continue to be the pace of global change and the rate at which technology changes, argued Forbes. The two are a cruelly matched pair that will forever challenge any leader’s judgement and decision-making, as both significantly impact a company’s scalability, the timeframe to scale and the value it delivers along the spectrum of its growth. The secret to overcoming challenges is to anticipate them to the point that their inherent complexity is minimised. This means getting ahead of the power curve rather than looking at it from the low ground—something too many organisational leaders delay until it’s too late.

MARKETING & COMMUNICATION

In 'CMOs will step up to lead customer advocacy in 2016' Forrester argued that brand management is now about managing customers’ experiences. It says to CMOs: champion the cultural change in your firm and re-architect your communications approach - while prepping for a future when personalisation is expected.

The ballooning scale and diversity of customer data in 2016 will provide rich new sources of insight, equipping firms to engage with customers in novel ways and disrupt entire industries. But customer insights professionals and other marketers and strategists have only scratched the surface when it comes to using insights to drive transformational customer experiences. Forrester predicted what will happen in the seven hottest areas - data management, big data, analytics, business intelligence, insights services, data monetisation, and systems of insight.

See also:

7 marketing technology predictions for 2016 - Capgemini

2016 B2B Content Marketing Benchmarks, Budgets, and Trends- MarketingProfs

Seven marketing trends to watch in 2016 - Percolate

Digital Marketing in 2016 — The 5 Trends You Need To Care About by Jeremy Waite

2016 Social Marketing Planning Guide

Forrester's 2016 Mobile And App Marketing Trends.

OPERATIONS

The coming year will see CIOs continuing their journey to transforming their organisations and embracing the business technology agenda, argued Forrester. They also need to update systems of record, identify skill shortages, and kiss the old IT department goodbye.

REGULATION

Deloitte's Top 10 for 2016: Our outlook for financial markets regulation update predicted the key strategic regulatory issues that the FS industry will face in the coming year. Each topic is accompanied by a view on the sector impacts across retail banking, capital markets, insurance and investment management.

RISK

The World Economic Forum's Global Risks Report 2016 drew attention to ways that global risks could evolve and interact in the next decade.

Oxford Economics (OE) presented its top ten risks for 2016. A resilient growth performance among advanced economies should offset subdued outturns in emerging markets. According to OE, the balance between advanced economy and emerging market growth is a dangerous cocktail, as it places a premium on the Fed’s powers of judgement. And it requires the emerging world, and China in particular, to resist forces that could fuel a more marked slowdown.

Eurasia Group’s 2016 Year-Ahead Outlook found that, barring a few exceptions, political trends next year are likely to be characterised by a “slow burn.” Geopolitical risk flowing from the Ukraine crisis has diminished, but there are new and rising risks in Asia and the Middle East. Eurasia Group’s report begins by flagging three macro themes that inform its global assessment, then offers forecasts for 2016 from its regional and sector-specific practices. The practice reports, including Asia, Eurasia, Europe, Latin America, Middle East & North Africa, North America, Africa, and Global Energy & Natural Resources, identify the key political drivers that will define the business and investment environment.

Eurasia first wrote about the g-zero world five years ago. It’s now fully upon us, and the unwinding of the US-led geopolitical order will accelerate in 2016. There is growing political division in a year with a presidential election in the US and a foundational political crisis for Europe. Russia, in decline, is led by an increasingly combative and resurgent Vladimir Putin. China is becoming far more powerful, but with a foreign policy that reflects primarily economic (though still strategic) national interests. The Middle East is the most vulnerable to a geopolitical leadership vacuum and is heading toward conflagration, believes Eurasia. There are six failed states across the broader region and more refugees than ever recorded. Oil economies are under strain. All of this will get worse in 2016. Europe will feel much of the pain-in economic costs, security vulnerability, and political blowback. The US, at the twilight of the Obama administration, will mostly stick to its knitting, since the Western hemisphere remains insulated from the lion’s share of geopolitical instability. In Asia, despite having many of the world’s strongest national leaders, helping manage these problems is not a priority. This all means a dramatically more fragmented world in 2016.

Indeed, Eurasia Group's latest Political Risk Monitor summarised key trends in political risk and stability from 2015 with a look forward into 2016. As in 2015, political stability will probably be more volatile in 2016 than in recent years, and we expect politics will have a more negative impact on the global economy over the next six months. Weighted by GDP, global political stability is most concentrated in the Asia Pacific region and appears set to remain so in 2016. Iran and Pakistan saw the largest gains in political stability last year, while Ukraine and Turkey endured the biggest declines.

The Financial Times warned that when judging forecasts about 2016, we should beware of the “continuity bias”. This is the temptation to assume that this year will be a bit like last year - only more so. In fact, recent political history suggests that the events that define a year tend to be the big surprises and sudden discontinuities.

Oxford Analytica believes that business and investment risk drivers will not diminish in 2016, but they will be secondary to growing political- and policy-driven risks.

Global corporate exposure to business risk is moving higher going into 2016, primarily in Europe and Eurasia, Regulatory and political risk likely will rise and financial risk will decline; operational and economic risk are likely to remain stable.

RiskMap 2016 is Control Risks' global forecast of business risk, drawing on the company's our worldwide network of expertise to create tan authoritative guide to the challenges and opportunities of the coming year.

TECHNOLOGY

This year’s top 10 strategic technology trends from Gartner are grouped into these three complementary trends that are mutually reinforcing with amplified disruptive characteristics.

Harvard Business Review's 2 016 technology trends claim to offer early warnings and opportunities for managers in all industries. They include: algorithmic personality detection, augmented knowledge, blockchain and bots.

In 'Tech firms high hopes for new year', the Financial Times noted that untried products and shifting markets will feature in the industry’s story in 2016.

In 'CIOs, your custodial days are over', Forrester argued that in 2016, CEOs will demand CIOs move from "keeping the lights on" to leading the firm’s digital future. it says to CIOs: become customer-obsessed, accelerate your business transformation agenda, and lead through continuous change that includes significant change management.

2016 may be the first year developers think mobile-first, flipping the technology pecking order. Read Forrester's predictions for what will be the year of shifts for developers.

See also:

Overall technology trends

Merger Market top tech trends for 2016
25 big tech predictions for 2016 - Business Insider
The 10 Biggest Tech Trends for 2016 (Entrepreneur.com)
The Top 10 Technology Trends To Watch: 2016 To 2018 - Forrester
2016 Predictions by Frank Diana
The Top 10 Technology Trends To Watch: 2016 To 2018 - Forrester
Gartner's 2016 strategic technology list, featuring internet of everything, smart machines and digital mesh
Major Trends For 2016: Consumers Flex Muscles, Scramble For Resources And Strive For Privacy by Mary Meehan (Forbes)
Trends For 2016, Part 2: Consumers Find Tech Transformed, Connect With Their Tribes, Reel From Shock by Mary Meehan (Forbes)
Fjord Trends 2016 — Slideshare presentation here
8 Tech Trends to Watch in 2016 by HBR
10 Language and Technology Trends for 2016
Letter From the Editor: These Will Be 2016’s Biggest http://www.wired.com/2015/12/editors-letter-january-2016/ Stories in the WIRED World
Tech Trends 2016 - Frog Design
Predictions for the Most Disruptive Tech Trends - Inc.com
So many ‘for 2016’ lists. So little time - Trendwatching.com
Check out 10 technologies that could change your life in 2016 - Tech Radar
Tech predictions 2016: 4 business trends to watch - (ZDNet)
Tech Trends for 2016: Human robots, virtual reality sex and more - Startups.co.uk
Industry Top Trends 2016 - Technology (S&P)

3D trends

3D Print Hub's '3D Printing Trends December 2015' report provides a comprehensive and unmatched perspective on the current state of the 3D printing industry. Based on data from our 3D Hubs community, which includes over 24,500 printers in over 150 countries, and thousands of 3D print orders every month, we are excited to show you the printers people love and what’s trending in the world of 3D printing.

Artificial Intelligence trends

AI TRENDS 2016
Microsoft: 2016 Will Be The Year Of AI (Fast Company)
7 trends for artificial intelligence in 2016: ‘Like 2015 on steroids’ (Tech Republic)
AI, automation to shape 2016 tech trends

Big Data trends

Information Week's 'Big Data Predictions For 2016' asked: what's in store for big data in 2016 and forecast updates in machine learning, real-time data-as-a-service, algorithm markets and more.

Cloud trends

Tableau published its top 10 cloud trends for 2016, arguing that there is a growing realisation that data as a critical business asset can be very efficiently (and cost-effectively) stored in the cloud. The database, integration, and analytics markets are now in a race to understand how each can ultimately capitalize on this shift.

Digital trends

In 'From ‘how?’ to ‘what?’ The digital side effect that will help define 2016', Accenture claimed digital is now "streamlined, slick, digs deep and gets personal". It has evolved from electronic brochure ware to multi-party, feature rich, interactive platforms that facilitate cross-sector collaboration to create personalised end-to-end products and services for customers. Agile businesses no longer think about ‘how’, only ‘what’. This is going to make for a fast-paced 2016 in digital, characterised by creativity and innovation. Accenture's advice: keep your eyes wide open, understand these new business models and value propositions, and act.

In 2015, Forrester identified a shift in focus beyond mobile-first to a broader view of digital customer experiences that increasingly blends physical and digital interfaces. For 2016, that trend continues, and customer experience professionals should note that it highlights digitally enabled and enhanced services, with concierge services shaping up to be the new customer experience battleground.

In 2016, China’s $147 billion tech market will demonstrate where CIOs are increasing spending and how they’re addressing potential disruption. With China’s economy slowing, now is the time to accelerate digital transformation.

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