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Halcyon actively monitors change covering more than 150 key elements of life.

The 52:52:52 project, launching both on this site and on Twitter at the beginning of 2023 will help you address 52 issues with 52 responses over 52 weeks.

A Mundane Comedy will be Dominic Kelleher's new book, published in early 2023. Extracts will appear on this site and on my social media accounts the final quarter of 2022. Please get in touch with any questions or thoughts.

What's Changing? - Emergence

Emerging Trends

 

 

Please see below selected recent emerging trends.

See also:

 

December 2022

 

November 2022

  • The Future Normal argued that the physical world is about to get a whole lot more decentralised, especially energy (both at the supply level and batteries enabling greater flexibility), food that is grown (in shipping containers and giant cultivation tanks), and more diverse and flexible transportation (from e-scooters to flying cars). 
  • Inflation was the number one concern for people globally at the end of 2022, according to an Ipsos survey. Concerns over rising prices had already persisted for more than a year. Poverty, inequality, corruption and climate change were also major concerns and a majority believed their country was heading in the wrong direction.
  • Brazil, Indonesia, and the Democratic Republic of Congo plan to form a new “OPEC of Rainforests.” The three countries are home to more than half of the world’s total tropical forests, which environmentalists say are crucial “lungs of the earth” to mitigate the global warming effects of greenhouse gasses. The grouping would coordinate on limiting deforestation while also advancing proposals for developed countries to help finance conservation efforts in the Global South.
  • Dutch students invented a car that reduces carbon emissions. The “Zero Emission Mobility” vehicle captures CO2 while driving.
  • France wants car parks to soak up sunshine. A solar panel covering will be mandatory for lots that can park 80 vehicles or more.
  • More than half of people with Down syndrome can't find paid employment. Aiming to match supply and demand, the Canadian Down Syndrome Society launched the world's first employment resource on LinkedIn for people with Down syndrome, by partnering with LinkedIn to develop Inployable. People with Down syndrome in search of a job could fill out a brief form on inployable.com, including their LinkedIn profile. If they didn't have a profile, a coach would help build one. Job seekers are added to Inployable's network, where potential employers could find them. Inployable aimed to build out the community with resources for employers on subjects like training processes and how to implement inclusive hiring. Crucially, the goal was to provide long-term support, not just share a meaningful but fleeting campaign.
  • Business schools have started teaching classes in virtual worlds as they look to prepare their students for the age of the metaverse, the Financial Times reported. Virtual classrooms, which can accommodate a lecturer and hundreds of students (all in avatar form), have the potential to make learning more interactive. By learning in these virtual worlds, business students may also start to figure out the commercial opportunities that the metaverse presents.
  • As “therapy speak” increasingly infiltrates the vernacular, Merriam-Webster took official note of the trend. The dictionary publisher chose “gaslighting” as its word of the year for 2022. A term that once referred to extended and severe “psychological manipulation,” it now means “something simpler and broader: the act or practice of grossly misleading someone”.

 

October 2022

  • It's worth understanding the metaverse as a space subject to competing ideals and political pressures and fragmentation. Internet scholars Kieron O’Hara and Wendy Hall discerned that at least four internets have emerged: the Silicon Valley open internet, the highly regulated European “bourgeois” internet, the Chinese authoritarian internet, and the US commercial internet. The WEF believes we can therefore equally envision a future of at least four metaverses, namely the open metaverse, the civil European metaverse, the authoritarian Chinese metaverse, and the commercial US metaverse.
  • The global market for envelopes, tubes, mailers, and other protective packaging was projected to hit US$63.6 billion in 2022, nearly double where it stood in 2019, before the pandemic vastly accelerated the growth in e-commerce.
  • Spanish scientists claimed worm saliva could break down plastics. The researchers discovered that chemicals in the saliva of the wax worm can break down polyethylene, the world’s most used plastic and maintained that just one hour of exposure can cause degradation that typically takes several years to occur.
  • A new AI tool can predict risk of heart disease by scanning a person's retina. A paper in the British Journal of Ophthalmology said the tool analyses veins and arteries in the eye, and can deliver an accurate risk of heart disease and stroke within 60 seconds.
  • There could be a cancer vaccine within the next decade. The team behind Pfizer’s COVID jab say they’ve had some “breakthroughs.”

 

September 2022

  • A Dutch city decided to ban ads featuring meat products. Citing environmental and health concerns, Haarlem will implement the ban, thought to be the world’s first, from 2024.
  • Developed by Dutch startup Loop Biotech, the Living Cocoon is a casket made of mycelium. It takes seven days to grow using local waste ingredients and 30-45 days to disappear once placed in the earth. A human body buried in a mushroom casket is estimated to decompose within three years, versus 10 to 20 in traditional caskets or coffins. Not only is the process faster, it's also cleaner. Toxins in the human body are neutralised by networks of fungi and bacteria, preventing toxins from polluting the soil. Dela, the leading Dutch burial insurance provider, announced that it's including Loop's caskets in its range of funeral products for both burials and cremations. 
  • Shoji Morimoto has what some would see as a dream job: he gets paid to do pretty much nothing. The 38-year-old Tokyo resident charges 10,000 yen (US$71) per booking to accompany clients and simply exist as a companion. "Basically, I rent myself out. My job is to be wherever my clients want me to be and to do nothing in particular," Morimoto told Reuters, adding that he had handled some 4,000 sessions in the past four years.
  • An all-electric airplane took to the skies. The prototype could become the first fully electric commercial plane.

 

August 2022

 

July 2022

 

June 2022

  • Gallup, the analytics firm, first began tracking global unhappiness in 2006. Negative emotions—the aggregate of stress, sadness, anger, worry and physical pain has reached a record high This may not be surprising. The world in 2022 was suffering from a large European conflict (in addition to other ongoing wars), inflation and the consequences of a once-in-a-lifetime pandemic, but the global rise in unhappiness started long before most of those issues made headlines. In fact, global unhappiness had already been increasing for a decade.
  • There’s already litter on Mars. NASA believes a shiny object photographed between two red rocks is a piece of a foil thermal blanket from a 2021 mission.
  • Vinyl has been resurgent for years, but 2021 marked the format’s biggest year in decades: Sales grew 51% and vinyl outsold CDs for the first time since the 1980s, according to Luminate. CD sales are also on the rise, but sales of digital music—once synonymous with the $.99 iTunes single—are in freefall. In 2021, digital sales brought in only 4% of US music industry revenues, according to the Recording Industry Association of America. 
  • An autonomous merchant ship sailed from Mexico, through the Panama Canal, and on to port in South Korea. The 20,000 kilometre journey of the PRISM Courage, an ultra-large carrier made by Hyundai, marked the first time a large carrier vessel had made a transoceanic autonomous voyage.
  • Japan successfully tested a giant deep-ocean turbine that could provide an endless supply of clean energy. The 330-ton turbine, created by IHI Corp, converts deep ocean currents into electricity, and has been tested in the waters surrounding the Tokara Islands in southwestern Japan.
  • According to the FT, the story of our species is mostly the story of disorder, not too much order; of anarchy rather than tyranny. Even now, the state, a recent invention, is patchy and provisional in much of the world. Western liberals should adjust their nightmares accordingly. Worrying about strongmen will continue to make sense as long as e.g. Donald Trump ponders a comeback. But the larger trend of events is towards fragmentation and chaos. The FT adds that perhaps it is because there is no face or voice to put to it that such entropy goes under-discussed, under-dramatised and under-feared, even as it accounts for the greater share of human history.
  • Scientists unveiled a self-propelled robo-fish that can eat microplastics out of the ocean. Researchers at Sichuan University said the tiny robots, just 13 millimetres in length, are made of materials that attract and absorb microplastics.

 

May 2022

 

April 2022

  • TIGER - a global index tracking global economic recovery and set up by the Brookings Institution and the Financial Times - warned that stagflation might affect most economies in 2022 as the war in Ukraine exacerbates a slowdown in the global post-pandemic recovery. The International Monetary Fund meanwhile lowered its growth forecasts for 143 of the world’s economies, representing 86% of global GDP.
  • Mushrooms appear to talk to each other. Scientists catalogued a “vocabulary” of 50 electrical signals fungi exchange via underground tendrils.
  • As we shift to a bio-based rather than fossil-fuel-based economyseaweed could provide a lot of the compounds we need. Seaweed plantations are beginning to pop up all along Europe’s Atlantic and North Sea coasts. Plant-based or lab-grown substitutes to fish could offset carbon emissions and restore aquatic ecosystems affected by commercial fishing. While Europe is home to the most alt-seafood startups (43%), Asia is a key market - by 2050 it will account for two thirds of world consumption.
  • A metaverse startup called Somnium Space announced plans to offer users a ‘live forever’ mode. The service would collect massive amounts of data on a participating user, including their conversations, gestures, and travels inside the Somnium world. It would then create an AI-fuelled avatar of that user, intended to be a mirror image of the real person.
  • Businesses are using AI to monitor the emotion of clients and prospects during online sales calls. A range of startups are building software systems to support this, and Zoom reportedly said they planned to offer emotion recognition services in future.
  • The world’s first flying car airport opened in the UK. Called a “vertiport,” the hub will also accommodate drones and other eVTOL (“electric vertical takeoff and landing”) aircrafts.

 

March 2022

 

February 2022

  • By the start of 2022, one in 10 jobs in the UK were advertised as “entirely remote working”, with 74% of those roles paying above the average annual salary of £31,000. Analysis from business adviser Hazlewoods suggested that employing remote workers widens the pool of potential candidates, an attractive option at a time when many companies were struggling to fill vacancies.

 

January 2022

 

December 2021

 

November 2021

 

October 2021

  • OpenAI shared plans for a global universal basic income. Lots of people didn’t like what they heard. The new project is a cryptocurrency called Worldcoin, plus an innovative plan for rapid worldwide adoption: the currency is intended to be ‘collectively owned’, and everyone on Earth can claim a share, but to claim Worldcoins, people would have to first to stare into a metal sphere called the Orb, which will scan their eyes. Having registered their unique human identity,  they’d then be allotted their coins.

 

August 2021

  • The word metaverse has its origins in a 1992 sci-fi novel called Snow Crash, by Neal Stephenson. The book depicts an anarchic, post-collapse United States in which many live primarily inside a giant VR world. For New World Same Humans, examples of an emerging metaverse are everywhere. Jeff Bezos cited Kim Stanley Robinson’s epic Mars Trilogy as having helped inspire his Blue Origin space startuprapper Akon’s plans to build the hyperfuturistic Akon City in Senegal; he calls it ‘the real-world Wakanda’ after the country of that name from the Marvel universe and hardly a week goes by without a tech news item raising comparisons to some episode of Black Mirror.
  • Athens appointed a chief heat officer, becoming the first European city to do so. The move follows closely behind Miami’s CHO appointment announced in early 2021. As we experience more extreme weather, we may see other new roles created specifically to mitigate the impacts of a warming planet.
  • Regenerative methods that conserve and rehabilitate our planet are taking root across the globe, and progressive brands are joining the movement. This is what Trendwatching calls the age of "terrapy", in which consumerism goes hand-in-hand with climate activism.
  • The Pegasus Project, a consortium of journalists and news outlets spanning 10 countries, discovered that, without even clicking a link, someone can gain access to your messages, photos, and calls and even control your phone’s microphone and camera.
  • Author Liam Heneghan drew on his experiences returning to his motherland, Ireland, to understand what it means to be "allokataplixic", that feeling of newness we often carry with us when visiting a new place.

 

July 2021

  • Launched in Atlanta, the Illuminarium offers high-definition video projected onto walls 22 feet tall and 350 feet wide, enhanced with multisensory features such as floors that vibrate and smells that permeate the space. The first experience is an African safari, and a Moon walk experience is in development.
  • Funded on Kickstarter, Terra Project aims to create a network of devices that track migration while letting people livestream nature's soundtrack into their home. After being placed in a backyard or other outdoor setting and hooked up to a wifi network, Terra's weatherproof, saucer-shaped device picks up bird calls and other wildlife sounds and broadcasts them to a user's speakers or headphones.
  • The extended reality (XR) industry, which includes virtual reality (VR), augmented reality (AR), and mixed reality (MR), which involves both virtual and physical spaces, is projected to grow from $43 billion in 2020 to $333 billion by 2025, according to a recent market forecast. Much of that growth will be driven by consumer technologies, such as VR video games, which are projected to be worth more than $90 billion by 2027, and AR glasses, which Apple and Facebook are currently developing. But other sectors are adopting immersive technologies, too. A 2020 survey found that 91 percent of businesses are currently using some form of XR or plan to use it in the future. The range of XR applications seems endless, according to Big Think.

 

June 2021

 

May 2021

  • Geoff Mulgan affirmed that we are in the midst of an Imaginary Crisis, a moment defined by a deterioration of our shared social imagination, by an abrading of our ability to beam positive yet tenable futures into a shared space of the possible.
  • Q-commerce, (short for quick commerce), is the next evolution of e-commerce that’s sweeping across cities. Instead of waiting days for your delivery, people get their groceries, gear or gifts in a matter of minutes. In satisfying today’s connected consumer, speed, rather than quality, is of the essence. E-commerce and Q-commerce had been growing steadily over recent years, and were given a huge boost by the Covid pandemic. Locked-down, or just fearful of going out, more-and-more people started ordering takeaways and essentials to be delivered to their doors.
  • Geographers are concerned about the spread of fake, AI-generated satellite imagery. Such pictures could mislead in a variety of ways. They could be used to create hoaxes about wildfires or floods, or to discredit stories based on real satellite imagery. Deepfake geography might even be a national security issue, as geopolitical adversaries use fake satellite imagery to mislead foes.
  • Exponential View warned that post-pandemic growth and recovery aren’t going to amount to much if the global economy struggles with shortages. As wealthier countries emerged from the pandemic, there weren’t enough of some goods to buy. The Economist noted that many advanced economies have been structured to focus on inadequate demand (in the wake of the global financial crisis) and then they were faced with shortages of everything from timber to cars and semiconductors. There were shortages of labour and people too in some countries: US companies like McDonald’s and Amazon boosted pay to attract workers in an extremely tight labour market. Added to which, there are declining birth rates in several of the world's largest economies.
  • The technologist and novelist JM Legard proposed an interspecies currency: a digital currency “that could allow several hundred billion dollars to be held by other beings simply on account of being themselves and no other and being alive in the world”.
  • The International Energy Agency dramatically revised its forecast for solar and wind energy. The IEA now says that solar energy will offer “the cheapest electricity in history”, which will lead to a “new normal” with exceptional levels of ongoing deployment. Meanwhile. researchers at University College London explained why solar and other renewables are on this path. However, the declining cost of renewable energy is accelerating political fissures between cities and national governments around the world. As cities seek to carve out more independence, some are securing their own power supply outside of the confines of national political dynamics, according to MIT Technology Review.
  • Generative AI is used to create all new creative works to evoke whatever mood you desire, noted Future Today Institute. Want to hear a “new” Rolling Stones song? Generative AI creates a song in the exact style and sound of The Rolling Stones that matches the mood it predicts from your biometrics, including physiological data, galvanic skin conduction, facial expressions and activity data

 

April 2021

  • Antiscience has emerged as a dominant and highly lethal force, and one that threatens global security, as much as do terrorism and nuclear proliferation. Scientific American warned that we must mount a counteroffensive and build new infrastructure to combat antiscience, just as we have for these other more widely recognised and established threats. Antiscience is the rejection of mainstream scientific views and methods or their replacement with unproven or deliberately misleading theories, often for nefarious and political gains. It targets prominent scientists and attempts to discredit them. 
  • The School of Life (TSOL) believes that, nowadays, almost all of us wish we could be calmer. It’s one of the distinctive longings of the modern age. Across history, people have tended to seek out adventure and excitement. But most of us have had a bit too much of that now. The desire to be more tranquil and focused is the new, ever more urgent priority. A lot of agitation is caused by an unrealistic sense of how unusual difficulty is. We are oppressed by unhelpful images of how easy it is to achieve and how normal it is to succeed. The stories that officially circulate about what relationships and careers are like tend fatally to downplay the darker realities, leaving many of us not only upset, but upset that we are upset, feeling persecuted as well as miserable. TSOL argues that we need to change our points of reference about what life is like. We need - in the broadest sense - better art, a kind that takes us more truthfully into the realities of relationships, the workplace and our 3am panics. We need to make sure we are surrounded by accurate case studies of the ordinary miseries of daily life.
  • Pollution is reportedly causing babies to be born with smaller penises, which could be a problem for human reproduction. Meanwhile, a fertility specialist warned that fertility trends are declining so rapidly that most couples may need to use assisted reproduction by 2045. While many factors are in play, decades of research on endocrine disrupting chemicals such as phthalates and bisphenols has led her to conclude there is strong evidence that they play a major causal role. These chemicals are widely used in plastics and coatings and common household products and are present in most processed foods and drinks – so almost everyone is exposed to them. They are also persistent and accumulative, building up in the animals and fish we eat, and in our own bodies.
  • Technological solutionism is a phrase coined by the technology thinker Evgeny Morozov, who used it to describe a worldview - common, he said, in Silicon Valley - in which the conditions of human life, including our greatest individual and collective challenges, are seen as only a set of technical problems to be engineered away. The world, said Morozov, doesn’t work like that. We need to unlearn the lesson that technology can always solve our problems.
  • Microsoft won a contract worth as much as $21.9bn to provide the US army with at least 120,000 augmented reality headsets, to bring the next generation of computing to the battlefield.  Microsoft would provide the army with “Integrated Visual Augmentation System” headsets, which would help soldiers train, home in on targets or be aware of nearby threats by overlaying contextual information on top of the real world, according to the Financial Times.
  • According to SingularityHub, we’re already living in a world where many people prefer to live life online; we’re glued to our phones, computers, and smart TVs for the vast majority of our waking hours, and our interactions with chatbots, AIs, and digital devices like Alexa may soon catch up to our interactions with other humans. So it seems there’s a very real danger that once the "metaverse" becomes widely accessible (even it that is many years if not decades away), people will prefer to live there.
  • Future Today Institute imagined a scenario under which, by 2026, the COVID pandemic may have been the catalyst for countries to establish health passports, but over time, the systems morphed to verify broader aspects of a traveller’s health status. “Sanity passports” emerged, driven by AI scoring of personality and mental health markers. Escalating domestic incidents, stemming from increased polarization and loosened gun controls, led the US to be the first country to initiate this new criteria. Under a veil of national security, the government and its contractors blocked release of any information about the data or algorithms being used. People who had visited the country just a few months before were suddenly refused entry with no way to find out why or appeal the decision. Whole countries seemed to be blocked from visiting the US, and even US citizens began to fear that if they left, they might not be allowed to return.

 

March 2021

  • The application of genetics to medicine in a systematic and transformative way - not just in understanding the pathology of diseases but in tracking their spread and curing and preventing them - could underpin what's becoming known as “natural security”: the task of making societies resilient in the face of risks stemming from their connection to the living world, whether because of disease, food insecurity, biological warfare or environmental degradation. The pandemic showed that biomedical science has the tools and the enthusiasm to improve the world, argued The Economist. 
  • The Economist described how sudden, concerted action against COVID-19 brought together decades of cumulative scientific progress. The spate of data, experiments and insights has had profound effects on the pandemic - and, indeed, on the future of medicine. Around the world, scientists put aside their own work in order to do their bit against a common foe. The first year of COVID-19 led to some 350,000 bits of research, many of them on preprint servers that made findings available almost instantaneously.
  • Mark Zuckerberg claimed that by 2030, people could use advanced smart glasses to “teleport” to work or to other people’s homes, and speak to them as if they’re physically present. This would enable in-person meetings to be replaced by a headset-based digital experience, which could fight climate change by reducing commutes and travel.
  • Roblox Corporation’s CEO David Baszucki is clear about his vision: he’s not creating another video game, but a version of the metaverse: a massive, shared virtual world in which millions will hang out, play, talk, and collaborate. For the teens and tweens already immersed in games such as Roblox and Fortnite, that vision requires no explanation, noted New World Same Humans.
  • Northwestern University published Data Leverage: A Framework for Empowering the Public in its Relationship with Technology Companies, asking what ordinary people can do to win back some of the power being amassed by the big digital platforms. One answer, noted New World, Same Humans, is what the researchers call data poisoning: intentionally sending false or meaningless data to Google, Facebook, and others in order to confuse the algorithms they use to make sense of our online behaviour.
  • A scientist claimed the universe may be a giant neural network. The core idea is that every observable phenomenon in the entire universe can be modelled by a neural network and that means, by extension, the universe itself may be a neural network. Professor Vitaly Vanchurin said his theory may explain the apparent inconsistencies between classical and quantum physics.
  • The eventual end of the pandemic will demand conversations around how and when workers will return to the office. For many, the answer may be never and that could shift where many work from. A recent article argued that remote work will be combined with extended stays at hotels, hostels and the like, changing the face of hospitality. Some hotels have caught on, offering subscription services for nomadic workers. Countries have even begun changing laws to give remote workers visas to bring in revenue for battered hotels and stores.
  • Diminished Reality (DR) digitally removes or reduces unwanted features of the real-world environment. It's like augmented reality in reverse. DR has wide-ranging applications in health and medicine (taking away stimuli), city planning (reducing noise), retail/dining/ travel (customising consumer experiences), manufacturing (worker focus), and sports (reduce the sensation of impact) to name a few. DR is a feature of what Future Today Institute calls the You of Things, the set of connected wearable devices that use our data to optimise our daily activities. For companies that have chased (and given up on) personalisation, DR and AR will give consumers more direct control over their experiences.
  • Facebook is making a bracelet that lets you control computers with your brain. Facebook’s new product would enable people to navigate through augmented reality (for example selecting menu items) by simply thinking about which one they want.
  • New World Same Humans wondered whether, inspired by 20th-century success stories such as Hong Kong, the later 2020s will see a new wave of charismatic founders establish charter cities: independent city states intended to attract itinerant knowledge workers and reimagine government for the 21st-century. Many will be born, first, as decentralised cities in the cloud, which bring people together based on shared values, interests, and skills.
  • New World Same Humans also points to the emergence of the Sovereign Individual. Mainstream lifestyles in the 20th-century were built around the need to live close to a place of employment. As that need falls away for many in the 2020s, fundamental questions about the relationship between individuals, places, and governments emerge into view. The decoupling of knowledge work and location, and a proliferation of one-person, creator economy businesses, fuels a new global class of itinerant workers who hop from city to city while working for the same employer, or themselves. To which country should these workers pay tax? Who funds their healthcare? A new conception of citizenship - as a bundle of rights, responsibilities, and benefits that citizens can take anywhere with them - may begin to emerge.

 

February 2021

 

January 2021

 

December 2020

 

November 2020

 

October 2020

  • Big Tech offered us a deal and we took it, claimed New World, Same Humans - e.g. Amazon launched a range of new services, including an autonomous mini-drone for the home. At the heart of those services is a deal. We customers get convenience, Amazon gets unprecedented access to our private selves: homes, conversations, even heartbeats. That deal runs through much of what Silicon Valley has done to transform our lives across the last 20 years. There’s even a name for all this: surveillance capitalism.
  • Couples are increasingly adding fines for breaching coronavirus rules to their wedding budgets, according to Greater Manchester's deputy mayor for policing. In England, weddings are limited to 15 guests. Fines start at £200 for the first offence but are halved for prompt payment. It has led those organising wedding celebrations to factor the charges into budgets.
  • Paris mayor Anne Hidalgo, who has been leading a radical overhaul of the city’s mobility culture since taking office in 2014, embraced the notion of reshaping France’s capital into a 15-minute city. The concept, which was developed by Sorbonne Professor Carlos Moreno, advocates the creation of a city of neighbourhoods, in which workers find everything they need in terms of work, retail and leisure within 15 minutes of their home. In a work context, this would see offices added to neighbourhoods that lack them so people could work closer to where they live. There would also be local co-working hubs, enabling them to come together for meetings and to collaborate when necessary.
  • Crowdsleuthing is the practice of internet users banding together, typically unbidden, in an attempt to solve mysteries and crimes (and occasionally to take justice into their own hands). The core concept isn't particularly novel, finding one of its origins in the anonymous tip lines like Crime Stoppers that gained popularity in the '70s, or the Unsolved Mysteries TV series, which premiered in '87. But with the emergence of social networks and digitised media, public involvement has increased exponentially, and has become more complex and consequential.
  • Synthesis is an Amsterdam-based wellness retreat claiming to offer the world’s first commercial psychedelic depression therapy. The treatment is medically supervised by  a leading clinical psychologist at Imperial College London’s Centre for Psychedelic Research, who uses psilocybin-infused truffles, which are related to magic mushrooms and legal in the Netherlands. Patients enter a 13-month course that includes monthly group therapy and a five-day retreat with two psilocybin sessions. Since the release of a groundbreaking study in 2016, more and more scientific research points at the medicinal and therapeutic benefits that psychedelic mushrooms can have on patients suffering from depression and other mental illnesses. A commonly cited reason for why psilocybin, the main psychoactive component of magic mushrooms, can be so effective is that it can ‘unshackle’ patients’ minds - enabling them to see things in a different way, consequently leading to lasting shifts in their mindsets.

 

September 2020

 

September 2019

  • 4D printing is similar to 3D printing but with the inclusion of materials that morph in response to time, temperature or additives. In 2018, Chinese researchers successfully printed ceramics that were capable of transforming over time in response to stimuli such as heat and light. There are practical applications of 4D printing that are tremendous. Imagine a heat shield that suddenly materialises during a fire, or a garden that plants itself when the ground has warmed to precisely the right temperature for each seed.
  • As facial recognition and emotion detection spread, a fight-back is underway. These include a speech re-synthesiser that defeats emotion detection systems and an  ‘adversarial’ patch on a hat that can fool state-of-the-art facial recognition

 

August 2019

  • The Arctic is open for business. Its waters are poised to become economically viable as climate change clears the path for shipping, promising shorter trips than the southerly Suez and Panama Canal routes. Hundreds of permits are being issued for the Northeast Passage, which runs along the Russian coast, up from virtually none in 2010. In 2014 a cargo ship cleared the more fearsome Northwest Passage, which winds through the Canadian archipelago, without the help of an icebreaker. The possibility of trips straight across the top of the world is real.

 

July 2019

  • Governments are going big on biometrics: the global government biometric market is set to reach $7.9 billion by 2027, with more than 35% of that market led by fingerprint recognition, followed by facial recognition. China’s surveillance and safety industry is expected to grow strongly to 800 billion yuan ($116 billion) by 2020, according to Exponential View.
  • Conscious consumerism is a mass movement under way across a number of different . . . markets, not just luxury goods, Leanne Kemp, founder and chief executive of Everledger, a London-based company that uses blockchain to track and authenticate the origins of diamonds and other valuable productsm told the Financial Times. The company works with certification houses to create unique digital thumbprints of diamonds, which are then written on to the Everledger blockchain.
  • If an eco-tax doesn’t keep you from flying, maybe Flugscham will. It’s the sinking feeling you get when you realise your flight is a mighty contributor to climate change. Globetrotters are turning to trains, buses, and boats in increasing numbers in an attempt to limit the carbon footprints of their travels. 

 

June 2019

For BCG, the 2020s will likely be shaped by multiple trends that are already unfolding today:

  • Artificial intelligence is rapidly advancing, and pioneers are advancing beyond spot applications to implement AI at scale.
  • Businesses are increasingly organised into multicompany “ecosystems” that defy traditional industry boundaries and blur the distinction between competitors and collaborators, and producers and consumers.
  • Technology is beginning to redefine the nature of work, as well as the relationship between the company and the individual, as both employee and customer.
  • The rise of China is challenging the global economic order and the institutions and rules that have defined it.
  • Long-term global growth projections have been falling, driven in part by an ongoing deceleration in working-age population growth across major economies.
  • Society is increasingly scrutinising the social impact of technology and the sustainability and broader contribution of business.
  • Investor activism and the role of private capital are rising in many parts of the world.
  • The combination of these forces is producing multidimensional uncertainty, which confounds traditional forecasting and planning-based approaches for harnessing the future.

 

October 2018

  • In Corporate elites are overlooking deglobalisation, the FT warned that the recent market rout reflects investor worries about nationalistic politics
  • Digital detoxing isn’t new, but the past year has certainly seen a profound shift in perception:  for TrendWatching, our near-total digital lifestyles are seen less as simply a personal choice; instead people have been manipulated to become digital addicts, with all the negative social outcomes that entails - e.g. the World Health Organisation officially classified ‘gaming addiction’ as a mental disorder and France banned smartphones in school.

 

Pre 2018

  • If third sector, independent sector, voluntary sector or social sector all have their limitations, should we instead call it the humanity sector?
  • Bionics: Technically they’re called neuroprosthetics. But researchers are making strides in cochlear implantsartificial retinas, deep brain stimulation for the treatment of neurological diseases and chips that allow the paralyzed to manipulate computers or robotic limbs. These developments also present a host of new policy and legal questions, including a provocative one a research paper recently posed: “Did my brain implant make me do it?”
  • Internet of Things: We won’t just see more devices for our bodies in 2014. We’ll see more connected devices and sensors everywhere, in our appliances, cars, retail products and more. The so called Internet of Things has been discussed for years, but we’re reaching a point of mobile use and sensor saturation where it becomes a self-reinforcing trend: “Phones, chips, wearable computers and … cloud computing becomes more effortless and intuitive,” Canton said. “Devices will be aware of each other and aware of us.” Much like the quantified self, the Internet of Things will produce vast quantifies of data that individuals or businesses can use to improve efficiency in real time: Rerouting trips, reducing energy consumption and improving supply chain management. “The Internet is gradually becoming an extension of our brains, and mobile devices are already our external brains,” futurist Gerd Leonhard wrote last year. “Is the next stop the actual integration of the Internet in our bodies (iris implants etc), cyborgs after that … singularity, transhumanism? Not sure what to think of that, really, but … Ray Kurzweil is ready to tell you.”
  • Quantified self: New, smarter devices are coming onto the market, wearable or even swallowable sensors that can collect more medical data – oxygen intakeblood sugar, blood pressure, temperature and more — and transform that raw information into relevant life advice. More importantly, as scientists anonymize, aggregate and analyze data from sensors and genetic tests for millions of people, there’s good reason to believe they’ll glean fresh insights into disease treatment and prevention. “And at that point, you now have, for the first time in history, a scientific basis for medicine,” said Larry Smarr, the noted UC San Diego computer scientist in an Atlantic profile. The ”Measured Man” diligently collects his own input and output data — down to the microbial content of his feces. Futurist Glen Hiemstra, founder of Futurist.com and author of “Millennial City,” said that in 2014 we’ll see the “mainstreaming of the ‘quantified self’ in health, meaning common and cheap access to and popularity of personal health status tracking technology, as more and more people monitor their health day to day.” “Prime examples are wrist-based exercise and sleep trackers, and smartphone-based heart rate and performance trackers,” he added. “We’ll see some breakthrough entrants into the market.”
  • Regeneratives: In December 2013, the Methuselah Foundation, announced a $1 million “New Organ Liver Prize,” a five-year competition to produce an artificial liver. But it might not take that long. Later in the month, Organovo of San Diego said it expects to produce one next year — with a 3D printer. It’s merely one area in which we’re likely to see major strides in regenerative medicine in 2014, with more than 5,000 clinical trials using stem cells set for this year, said Dr. James Canton, chief executive of the Institute for Global Futures and author of “The Extreme Future.” “The most significant trends and breakthroughs in 2014 will be in regenerative medicine: The use of human stem cells to grow new organs, repair tissues (and) heal patients with numerous cardiovascular and autoimmune diseases,” he said in an email. Houle added that sometime between now and 2020, “our replacement parts will be superior to the parts we are born with.”
  • Robotics; Google gave the industry a lift by gobbling up an array of robotics companies for reasons the company is not exactly explaining yet. The firms included Boston Dynamics, which builds advanced robots like Cheetah that can sprint nearly 30 miles per hour. Futurist David Houle, author of several books including “The Shift Age” and “Future Wow,” said these and similar events will finally tip the prevailing public perception of robots in the new year from job-stealing Terminators to life-and-labor-saving aides. That will begin to allow the field’s true promise to be realized.Middle-class children are on course to be the first in more than a century to be materially less well off in adulthood than their parents.
  • At $72m, India's mission to Mars less expensive than many NY/London apartments - https://twitter.com/ianbremmer
  • People invested 9,5 million years playing World of Warcraft during its first nine years of existence - Prof Dan Cable - #theisf #WoW
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