What's Changing? - Demographics

Please see below recent demographics-related change.

See also:

In figures:

People are living longer almost everywhere

June 2023

Across much of the world the fertility rate, the average number of births per woman, is collapsing. In 2000 the world’s fertility rate was 2.7 births per woman, comfortably above the “replacement rate” of 2.1, at which a population is stable. By 2023 2.3 and falling. The largest 15 countries by GDP all have a fertility rate below the replacement rate. That includes the US and much of the rich world, but also China and India, neither of which is rich but which together account for more than a third of the global population. Japan in particular its lowest-ever birth rate, and its government hoped a 3.5 trillion yen ($25 billion) per year investment in childcare and healthcare would reverse the trend.

May 2023

The global population grew from less than 2bn in 1900 to 8bn+ at present. However, global births are expected to trend down while deaths rise as we approach the year 2100. Deaths are actually expected to surpass births before the turn of the century, ending global population growth. The rise of longevity tech designed to help people live longer, healthier lives could have an impact on the global population outlook.
Unease about the future is rife among Gen Z and millennials, according to a Deloitte survey. Respondents cited the cost of living as their top societal concern. Having a good work-life balance is paramount for them and a key consideration when choosing a new employer. Nearly half of Gen Zs and four-in-10 millennials feel stressed all or most of the time.
For those Gen Z members who entered the workforce after COVID hit, “the pandemic turned their first jobs into a two-year video call”, warned a report by Oliver Wyman and The News Movement, which painted a picture of a detached cohort more interested in their side hustles than their day jobs.

April 2023

A study from the Club of Rome forecast that global population will peak at around 8.8 billion in 2050. That’s far lower than the consensus UN forecast, which has global population peaking over 10 billion
A study by thinktank Recruit Works Institute said that Japan could face a shortfall of 11 million workers by 2040. The report forecast that demand for labour will remain broadly level until 2040, but that a rapidly ageing population will see the workforce shrink by around 12%. Japan's Prime Minister, Fumio Kishida, has warned of "societal collapse" if the issue is not addressed.
The UK government delayed plans to raise the state pension age to 68 from 2037 because something started to go awry with life expectancy trends. After decades of rapid improvement, progress slowed to a crawl since 2011. In the poorest parts of England, it actually started to fall. Similar trends were evident in “healthy life expectancy” - an estimate of the amount of time people can expect to live in good health.
In the US, the biggest contributor to Americans’ shortening life spans is drug overdoses, especially from fentanyl. The pandemic and the mental health crisis that ran alongside it is also to blame. The US saw more COVID deaths than other G-7 nations, while fatalities from suicide and alcohol-induced liver failure skyrocketed. Many of these deaths were of young people, which had a compounded effect on the national average.

March 2023

After nearly a decade of steady decline, the number of babies born in Japan in 2022 reached a record low of just 799,728, prompting an adviser to PM Fumio Kishida to warn that “if we go on like this, the country will disappear.” GZERO analysed why Japan is having so few babies, and what the government wants to do about it.
China’s demographic crisis reached its capital city. For the first time since 2003, Beijing reported a decline in population.

February 2023

People live two decades longer than they did in 1960, and women have half as many children. One of the ways this has transformed family dynamics concerns grandparents. There are a lot more of them, and they each have fewer grandchildren on average. Surprisingly little is known about this trend, so The Economist commissioned research, which found that the number of grandparents in the world has roughly trebled since 1960, to 1.5bn, and the ratio of grandparents to children under 15 has jumped from 0.46 in 1960 to 0.8 today. This matters because grandparents pass on knowledge and traditions and maintain a family’s links with the past. More vitally, they help bring up children, and free mothers to work outside the home.
Midlife individuals in countries such as the US experience, on average, lower life satisfaction than their younger and retirement-age counterparts, regardless of marital status. It is unclear whether this lower level of satisfaction is unique to the present midlife cohort and will carry with them as they age, or if this lower level of satisfaction will remain associated with those entering and living through their mid-forties.
Amidst the disruption brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic, the first members of Generation Z graduated from university. Gen Z’s are now the youngest constituents of the workforce: they were born in the late 1990s to early 2010s. PwC noted that, according to recent studies, Gen Z and millennials currently make up approximately 38% of the global workforce and this percentage will rise to about 58% by 2030.
Employee stress levels are on the rise, with the younger generation feeling the greatest impact, according to the Cigna 360 Global Well-Being Survey 2022. It surveyed nearly 12,000 employees across 15 countries, and found that 91% of Gen Z participants between the ages of 18 and 24 felt stressed, compared to 84% on average. The report said that unmanageable stress impacted almost a quarter (23%) of Gen Z-ers, with 98% experiencing symptoms of work burnout.
The Chinese Communist Party wants Chinese local leaders to boost the birth rate. A senior health official called on leaders to ‘make bold innovations’ to encourage more births, including moves to lower the cost of childcare and education. 2022 saw the lowest birth rate on Chinese records, at 6.77 births per 1,000 people.

January 2023

China’s population fell in 2022 for the first time in decades, a historic shift that is expected to have long-term consequences for the domestic and global economies. The world’s most populous country until 2023 had long been a crucial source of labour and demand, fuelling growth in China and the world. The National Bureau of Statistics announced that the total population fell by 850,000 in 2022 to 1.41175bn, the first decline in 60 years.
Japan’s falling birth rate is reportedly threatening social collapse. Prime minister Fumio Kishida warned that his country is on the verge of not being able to function. With a median age of 49, it’s the world's oldest country, and 28% of people are 65+. The nation of 125 million - whose annual births dropped below 800,000 for the first time in 2022, eight years earlier than forecasted - is expected to lose almost one-third of its population by 2060. Japanese women are giving birth less because fewer are getting married, mostly due to more economic opportunities for them, but many are also reluctant to tie the knot due to traditional domestic gender roles that put almost all the burden on women to take care of the house and kids, noted GZERO.

December 2022

Further reading:

November 2022

“Happy 8th billion day!” Natalia Kanem, the head of the UN Population Fund, said in a media briefing on Tuesday, November 15th 2022. According to the UN, this date marked the day the world’s population crossed 8 billion, the last billion having been added since 2010.

September 2022

The global population is set to reach parity between the sexes by 2050. It’s currently still a male-majority world, but balance should be achieved within the next three decades.
The UN estimates that five African countries will be amongst the 10 most populated in the world by 2100: Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Tanzania, and Egypt.
Average life expectancy in the US dropped to 76 in 2021, down three years from 2019. The dip was more pronounced among white Americans and was reported to be at least partly attributable to the pandemic.

August 2022

Flexible and hybrid work offers are now expected as standard by Gen Z staff. In a June 2022 survey of 647 Oxford students, “Good work/life balance” was the most important attribute of a job, edging out “Intellectually challenging” from the number one position for the first time. Any professional employer that is demanding five days a week in the office is likely to find its pool of candidates shrinking.
However, while big cities are where many of the jobs are, many millennials aren’t moving, meaning residential mobility inside big economies like the US keeps falling. Curio analysed why young Americans are sticking to their hometowns, with 80% of young adults still living within 100 miles of where they spent their teenage years.

July 2022

Since 1975 the world has added another billion people approximately every 12 years. It passed 7 billion in 2011, and was due to pass 8 billion by the end of 2022. While this rate of absolute growth is similar to previous decades, the growth rate continues to fall. Since 2019, the global population growth rate has fallen below 1%, less than half its peak rate of growth - 2.3% - in the 1960s. As global fertility rates continue to fall, this rate is likely to continue to fall.
The global population grew by less than 1% a year for the first time since the aftermath of the second world war in 2020 and 2021, with Europe’s total population actually falling during the coronavirus pandemic, according to the UN. The populations of 61 countries are forecast to decrease by at least 1% between 2022 and 2050, and the associated low fertility rates are likely to also combine with better healthcare to accelerate the ageing of societies.
The RSA noted that some key figures in sociology and philosophy believed that understanding generational change is central to understanding the dynamics of society. For example, in the early 1900s, the French philosopher Auguste Comte identified the generation as a key factor in “the basic speed of human development”, arguing that “we should not hide the fact that our social progress rests essentially upon death; which is to say that the successive steps of humanity necessarily require a continuous renovation…from one generation to the next”. Generations do differ from one another and prevent society turning into a “stagnant pond”, as Canadian demographer Norman B. Ryder argued in the 1960s.
Because we tend to settle into our value systems and behaviours during late childhood and early adulthood, generation-shaping events have a stronger impact on people who experience them while coming of age. It is therefore crucial that we start to understand what the pandemic will mean for the generation at their most malleable when COVID sent the world grinding to a halt, added the RSA.
The share of Germany’s population between the ages of 15 and 24 fell to a historic low of just 10%, about the same as Spain and Austria but below the European average of 10.6%. A shortage of working-age people will, over time, increase pressure for immigration, which remains politically contentious in many countries.
The grandparents that many young parents rely on for childcare may increasingly be out of the mix, as retired people are increasingly returning to the workplace due to economic need.

June 2022

Further reading:
- China is trying to change its problematic retirement age - Quartz
- Half of women in England and Wales do not have children by age 30 - Financial Times

May 2022

Birth rates have been in decline in much of the world; one study projected the global population will peak in 2064, then decline by nearly 1 billion over the next 36 years.

April 2022

China’s birth rate - the number of births per 1,000 people in the population - fell by just under 30% between 2019 and 2021, the largest two-year fall since the country’s Great Famine between 1959 and 1961. Just 10.6mn babies were born in China in 2021, the lowest number recorded since the Communist party took power in 1949.
In 1967, just over 70% of US adults lived with their spouse. By 2021, that number stood at 50%. As more people delayed marriage (or don’t get married at all), the share of adults living with unmarried partners increased from just .4% to 8% over the same timeframe. More people are also living alone or with nonrelatives today.

March 2022

In a 2018 survey from Deloitte, 77% of Gen Z respondents said it was important to work at organisations whose values aligned with theirs. Social values matter deeply to this population, and the issue of climate change particularly – in the US, Gen Z (people in their teens to mid-20s) are much more concerned about climate change than older generations. Similarly, in the UK, Bupa found in 2021 that 64% of surveyed 18-to-22-year-olds consider it important for employers to act on environmental issues, and 59% would remain longer with responsible employers. In Australia, young workers have left companies that aren’t doing enough to respond to climate change.

February 2022

Between 2009 and 2016, the number of women freezing their eggs grew by 1000%. However, freezing eggs isn’t a simple process. The procedure is far from a sure thing and it requires time, support and money. In the US, the total cost can easily top $15,000, a price point that has attracted a lot of start-ups and a lot of investment.

January 2022

China’s birth rate fell to 7.52 births per 1,000 people in 2021, an 11.6% decline over 2020 and the lowest in its history. The country recorded 10.6 million births and 10.1 million deaths, meaning its population of 1.4 billion had a net increase of just 480,000 people. China is up against demographic momentum set in motion by its former one-child policy. The size of younger generations is shrinking, which means the number of women in their childbearing years is, too.
It’s not just China that’s facing a fertility crisis. By the end of the 21st century, the world’s population is expected to nearly stop growing as fertility rates fall. To maintain the population size, 2.1 births per woman are needed, but by 2100 the global fertility rate is projected to drop to ~1.9
Bulgaria’s population shrunk by more than 11 percent over the past decade, according to its latest census data. The country has the lowest per capita income in the European Union, and many younger residents have left to pursue economic opportunities elsewhere, while birth rates continue to decline.

December 2021

More than any previous generation, millennials are embracing new and alternative ways of managing their money. CB Insights analysed down how millennial preferences are shaping innovation in personal finance and how startups and incumbents are responding.
China is not having enough babies, noted Quartz. Around 10 million newborns were entered into Hukou, the Chinese household-registration system, in 2020, according to China’s Ministry of Public Security. This represents a 15% decline from the 11.8 million babies registered in 2019. Although the actual number of new-borns each year would usually be bigger than the official registration figure - because some babies aren’t registered in time and hence not counted by the security ministry - many still see the decrease as evidence of China’s failure to handle its fast-approaching population crisis.
Building the Population Bomb (Oxford University Press, 2021), argued that previous theorists presented (over)population as a smokescreen to obscure the more proximate causes of the problems they attributed to population growth, namely, global socioeconomic inequality and environmental degradation. By focusing debate on how to most effectively and equitably slow population growth - legal limits on childbearing or voluntary family planning - proponents of overpopulation elided more direct regulatory and redistributive solutions to the world’s most pressing concerns. For example, framing these issues as “population problems” gets corporations off the hook, at the expense of the most vulnerable members of the world’s population and the planet itself.
According to Prospect, the experience of Gen Zers is often paradoxical, even contradictory. They have more “voice” than ever before (a meme or a YouTube or TikTok video can reach millions), but they also have a sense of diminished agency “in real life” (institutions and political and economic systems seem locked, inaccessible to them, and wrongheaded). They are often optimistic about their own generation but deeply pessimistic about the problems they have inherited: climate change, police violence, racial and gender injustice, failures of the political system, the fact they have little chance of owning a home or doing better than their parents.

November 2021

Research indicated that the pace of demographic decline in China may be faster than estimated and that China’s population could halve within the next 45 years according to a new study. Researchers at Xian Jiaotong University said census data showed a birthrate of 1.3 children per woman, which is far below that needed to maintain population. New Week wrote about this census data, and the challenge it poses to China’s hegemonic ambitions. China’s revised child policy has not significantly lifted birth rates, an impact likely to impact the global economy.
The Population Reference Bureau forecast that young Africans will comprise 42% of the world’s youth population, with under-35’s accounting for 75% of Africa’s population, by 2030.

September 2021

The Covid-19 pandemic triggered the largest falls in life expectancy since the second world war in most developed nations, with American men suffering the most severe losses. A study of death records across 29 countries, spanning most of Europe, the US and Chile, found 27 nations experienced reductions in life expectancy in 2020 at a scale that wiped out years of progress on mortality, according to research led by scientists at the University of Oxford.

July 2021

For the first time ever, five generations are working side by side in the workplace, creating a true multi-generational workforce. Age and health spans are improving into later life, while many workers are deferring retirement and working longer. Emerging research suggests this new workforce demographic is a powerful potential source of growth for companies. Elders already drive a significant portion of the world’s economic activity – in the US alone, Americans aged 50 and older generated nearly $8 trillion worth of economic activity in 2015, with this set to increase to $13.5 trillion by 2032. Research also shows that employing multi-generational workforces can create a significant competitive advantage, generating a stronger pipeline of talent, improving workforce continuity and stability, and assisting the retention of knowledge.
Life expectancy in the US dropped by one and a half years in 2020, according to health officials. The National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) said the average declined from 78.8 years in 2019 to 77.3 years in 2020. The drop, which is the largest seen in a single year since World War Two, was mostly attributed to the Covid-19 pandemic. Other factors, including a record-high in drug overdoses, were also blamed. The report said the largest declines were seen in Hispanic and black members of the population.

June 2021

China announced that it will now allow parents to have three children. The ruling Communist Party, which half a century ago was worried about overpopulation, is now desperate for Chinese couples to have more babies to bolster the country's sluggish population growth rate, which has plummeted in recent years due to the rising cost of living. For Beijing, this is a very big deal, as a declining and aging population could make it very hard for the country to maintain the strong economic growth needed to rival other economic powerhouses, like India or the US.

May 2021

Developments in gene therapy, oncology and more mean that people are living longer. Global average life expectancy increased by more than six years between 2000 and 2019, while healthy life expectancy has also increased.
The number of births in the US dropped by four percent in 2020, double the average rate of decline in the past six years, according to CDC data. This means that America's population is now below replacement levels, with more people dying than being born each day.
Population experts believe that, eventually, global population will shrink. The United Nations Population Division, which has been the primary compiler of data and forecasts, has predicted that this will begin by the turn of the next century. However, a study published in mid-2020 in academic journal the Lancet predicts that the decline will begin much earlier, largely due to decreasing fertility, by the 2070s.

April 2021

GZERO Media noted that "demography is destiny" a pronouncement, credited to French philosopher Auguste Comte, which is today taken to mean that a nation's fate depends on the youthfulness of its population. For a poor country to become rich, it needs lots of young people ready to work, to support those too old or too young to work, and to pay taxes. This is called the "demographic dividend."
Quartz argued that some young people who pride themselves on being egalitarian have a blind spot when it comes to their elders. There are reasons for intergenerational resentment, starting with the wealth gap between millennials and boomers. But younger generations’ systemic objections to the distribution of wealth and power in the can wind up turning into ageism,
Japan’s population is projected to decline by over a quarter by 2060 compared to 2019 levels. This, combined with an ageing population and a reduced labour force, risks having a major impact on Japan’s economy. In an attempt to address this, the government announced that it will invest £14m into AI matchmaking services to help young couples find love and start families. They are even providing funds to help newlyweds set up their new homes.
In Indonesia, the world's fourth most populous country, the state is working to ease future demand for jobs and social services by lowering the birth rate. Its government is investing in education and tech development and training, but it's also actively promoting later marriages, family planning and contraception to flatten population growth by 2025.
According to a Financial Times report, China's population dipped below the 1.4 billion mark that it reached in 2019. Experts blame rising costs of living, education, and childcare. For decades, the Chinese Communist Party was worried about overpopulation, and in 1978 it imposed the infamous "one-child policy." But in 2016 the government relaxed those restrictions because of fears of sluggish population growth. A stagnant or shrinking population could present serious long term problems for China's economic growth and the care of older generations.

March 2021

Large portions of Generation Z (those born in 1997 or later) entered the jobs market amid a pandemic, and they will need to contend with the increasingly severe effects of climate change. Their nest eggs are also at risk, according to The Economist. The generation can expect just 2% average annualized real returns on their investment portfolios. By comparison, Baby Boomers, Gen X'ers and millennials have enjoyed average real returns of 5% or greater.
Nevertheless, in years to come, Gen Z’s attitudes and expectations will shape everything from the structure of the international order to the nature of education and the societal responsibility of companies. In the world beyond the pandemic, business leaders will need to focus on the preferences and expectations of the pandemic generation. EY's How the next generation will shape the next normal, explored Gen Z’s preferences and ideas for the world that lies on the other side of the COVID-19 pandemic and what they might do differently if they were in charge.
The pandemic made the global middle class contract for the first time in decades, according to Pew Research Center estimates. The number of people falling out of the middle class, as well as those falling into it from higher income levels, surpassed 150 million in 2020 — more than the populations of France and Germany combined. More than a third of those falling into low income or poverty brackets are in South Asia (the economic and financial impact of the pandemic has pushed some 32 million Indians out of the middle class, the Pew report found. Pew defines India's middle class as those earning between $10 and $20 a day).

January 2021

Projections from major economic institutions suggest we could see a few important statistical records broken in the year ahead. Longer lifespans and falling fertility rates will continue to age the global population. In 2021, the global median is expected to hit 31 for the first time in recorded history, according to projections from the United Nations.

December 2020

The Great Demographic Reversal: Ageing Societies, Waning Inequality, and an Inflation Revival, by Charles Goodhart and Manoj Pradhan, argues that the low inflation, low interest rates and rising inequality of recent decades were overwhelmingly due to demographic shifts fuelled by globalisation - especially the entry of China into the world economy and the weight of the middle aged in high-income countries. Now, the authors believe, deglobalisation and ageing will reverse all that, generating higher inflation, higher interest rates, rising wages and falling inequality.
Research from the IZA Institute of Labor Economics highlighted how older people are just as capable of learning new things as their younger peers. The study finds that people who are close to retiring are just as interested in learning new skills as their younger peers, even if there is no strict need for them to do so. It’s an indication that we’re not retiring mentally as we age.
The Japanese government wants to start matchmaking its young people using AI. Japan has a problem with babies: it’s not making enough of them. The population is forecast to nosedive from 127 million in 2020 to 88 million by 2065. In an attempt to reverse this trend, the government is investing in AI technology that will match suitors on values and personality type. Local prefectures will start implementing the new system on state-run dating platforms in 2021.

November 2020

Even 30 years ago, adulthood - often marked by a stable job, a long-term partnership and financial independence - was coming later than it had in the past. A lot of emerging adults are now living with their parents, but this is part of a larger, longer trend, with the percentage going up only modestly since COVID-19 hit, noted Big Think.
Gen Z is poised to overtake millennials in income by 2031, according to Bank of America. They’re emerging as a powerful economic force, compelling other generations to adapt to them, not vice versa. Bloomberg reported that Gen Z’s preferences and priorities will likely benefit sectors including e-commerce, media and ESG, while areas including alcohol, meat and cars may suffer from the shift in influence.

October 2020

More than half of Nigeria's 206 million people are under 30, and the median age is 18.4.

September 2020

China’s middle class isn’t spending as much as it’s supposed to. Or at least as much as the politburo wants it to. Xi Jinping has projected Chinese per capita GDP of $14,000 by 2024, up from around $10,000 last year. The South China MP analysed why this may not happen. Too much of the national income goes to state enterprises and the very rich, and not enough to the supposedly 560 million-strong middle class. Six hundred million Chinese get by on $1,752 per year.

August 2020

Some purpose-driven millennials and Gen Zers are turning to careers advocating for and serving elders. Quartz spoke to five young adults about why senior care is the fulfilling, ethical job they were looking for.
People are living longer and retiring later, which means that up to five generations of employees now have to learn how to work together under one roof. In most workplaces, this is realistically limited to four generations, with people born shortly after the Second World War having to adapt to the working styles of their digitally savvy colleagues, and those younger employees having to respect the experience and traditional ways of working of their older peers.

July 2020

The world's population will likely grow more slowly than expected and peak at 9.7 billion by 2064, according to a UN study. This figure is around 2 billion lower than most current estimates, and lower fertility rates worldwide mean that by the end of the century, populations will be declining in 183 out of 195 countries.
The world is ill-prepared for the global crash in children being born which is set to have a "jaw-dropping" impact on societies, say researchers. Falling fertility rates mean nearly every country could have shrinking populations by the end of the century. And 23 nations - including Spain and Japan - are expected to see their populations halve by 2100. Countries will also age dramatically, with as many people turning 80 as there are being born.
However, Africa’s population could triple by the end of the century even as the rest of the world shrinks, warned Quartz. Africa will see a population boom, led by Nigeria, will result in the number of African countries with populations higher than 100 million jump from two, at present, to nine by 2100.
The millennial and Gen Z workers who asked for more flexibility at their jobs are the ones most yearning for a more traditional work situation during the pandemic, according to Quartz, which examined how young people were feeling about the coronavirus pandemic in comparison to their older peers, For these younger workers, the return to the office might actually spark joy.
Indeed, young workers are missing the office more than their older counterparts. In a survey of US workers conducted in April, over 70% of Gen Z and 60% of millennials felt negative about working from home, compared to 50% of older workers.

March 2020

Many people are living longer and retiring later, which means that up to five generations of employees now have to learn how to work together under one roof. In most workplaces, this is realistically limited to four generations, with people born shortly after the Second World War having to adapt to the working styles of their digitally savvy colleagues, and those younger employees having to respect the experience and traditional ways of working of their older peers.

February 2020

Egypt's booming population has reached 100 million, making the North African country the most populous Arab nation. The Egyptian government has tried to implement policies to curb population growth in an increasingly resource-strapped country where around a third of the population lives in poverty.

January 2020

More people are staying in the workforce for longer–because they want to. As human life spans lengthen, older adults are changing careers, taking on new roles, and even going back to school at ages that once would have been considered retirement-ready, wrote the Wall Street Journal.

December 2019

In the 2020s, the number of over-65s on the planet will overtake the number of children under five. This profound demographic shift is a consequence of longer lives and plummeting birth rates outside sub-Saharan Africa. It will require us to change our thinking about the social contract, healthcare, work and the rhythm of careers, even the very notion of family: some households will have multiple generations living under one roof; others will need to build support networks through neighbours and peers, not children.

November 2019

While the global population is expected to swell over the next thirty years, the population of Eastern Europe is spiralling in the other direction: the 10 fastest shrinking countries are in that region, according to the United Nations. In the years since 1989, the population of most former East bloc countries has shrunk as a result of emigration and low birth rates. That has put a brake on potential economic growth, but some argue it's also contributed to the rightward shift in some of the region's countries, as many of the more liberal-minded folks have already left for Western Europe.
Against the trend in most of the rest of the world, American life expectancy is falling. The drop is due in part to an increase in deaths of young and middle-aged people from causes like drug overdoses, suicides and organ system diseases.

October 2019

Of the world's fastest-shrinking populations, 90 percent are in East and Southeast Europe. Poor job prospects and inadequate social services are causing young people to seek opportunities abroad, threatening economic growth in the region

September 2019

Japan set new records as the world’s most aged population. More than 28% of the country is now aged 65 or older, exacerbating a growing labour shortage. Nearly a quarter of those seniors still work, with many in retail or forestry jobs.

August 2019

According to a Gallup poll, 44% of Russians between the ages of 15-29 say they want to move to another country permanently. That's up 30 points over the past five years. Russia's dwindling population and chronic brain drain are already threatening its prospects as a global power.

July 2019

As global connectivity soars, generational shifts could come to play a more important role in setting behaviour than socioeconomic differences do. Young people have become a potent influence on people of all ages and incomes, as well as on the way those people consume and relate to brands. In Brazil, Gen Z (people born between 1995 and 2010) already makes up 20% of the country’s population. McKinsey believes all companies should be attuned to three implications for this generation: consumption as access rather than possession, consumption as an expression of individual identity, and consumption as a matter of ethical concern.

June 2019

A UN Population Division report projects that the global population will hit 9.7 billion by 2050, up from the current 7.7 billion. Most of that population growth will come from sub-Saharan Africa, which is expected to add another billion people over the next three decades.

May 2019

For the Financial Times, longer lifespans and declining birth-rates - as fertility plummets almost everywhere outside sub-Saharan Africa - constitute the most dramatic story of our age. Shrinking, ageing populations may alter the balance of power between countries: notably between the US and China, the latter of which is growing old before it gets rich. Longevity will create multigenerational households and age-diverse workforces. The falling ratio of young to old will rewrite social contracts and force us to rethink the whole notion of family.
Quartz noted that, for decades there have been fears of a “silver tsunami” of older citizens leaving the workforce and creating an enormous drain on public finances through their impact on pensions and health care. However, a more optimistic version of this demographic wave lies in the rising power of the “silver dollar”, with estimates that in the US alone, the over-50s account for nearly $8 trillion of consumer demand - bigger than the combined GDP of France and Germany.
Hoover's How Will Demographic Transformations Affect Democracy in the Coming Decades? report warned that populations are set to explode in sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, South Asia, and Central America in coming years. The working-age population of sub-Saharan Africa alone is expected to increase by nearly a billion people between 2020 and 2060. Over time, we're likely to see "regional demographic explosions of young people." In coming decades, overcrowding in these places will exacerbate desertification, water shortages, and urbanisation. Mounting ecological stresses will provoke violent political conflict, forcing more people to hit the road in search of a better life.

April 2019

Middle classes in developed nations are under pressure from stagnant income growth, rising lifestyle costs and unstable jobs, and this risks fuelling political instability, the OECD warned. The club of 36 rich nations said middle-income workers had seen their standard of living stagnate over the past decade, while higher-income households had continued to accumulate income and wealth. The costs of housing and education were rising faster than inflation and middle-income jobs faced an increasing threat from automation. The squeezing of middle incomes was fertile ground for political instability as it pushed voters towards anti-establishment and protectionist policies, according to the OECD chief of staff.
Japan's population is shrinking by the equivalent of a medium-sized city each year due to a rapidly declining birth rate. The native-born Japanese population fell by 430,000 in 2018, while 161,000 migrants entered the country, partially offsetting that loss.
Of the nearly 270 million people living in Indonesia, the world's largest Muslim majority country, around 42 percent, or 113 million, are under the age of 25.
The population of Americans under age 18 will be majority non-white by 2020, according to a study by a Brookings Institution demographer. In less than a decade, most Americans under 30 will be non-white. By 2045, a majority of all Americans will be non-white

March 2019

A child born in Venezuela today can expect to live 3.5 years fewer than one born into the previous generation, according to the Universidad Central y la Simón Bolívar.
The number of new births in China fell by 2 million to 15.2 million in 2018. It was the second straight year of decline in the birthrate since China ended its "one child" policy in 2015. More than half of respondents who said they were delaying having children cited the high cost of raising a child, reported GZEROMedia.
The average number of children a woman has over her lifetime has almost halved since 1950, despite the annual number of births continuing to rise worldwide. However, there still remains a large disparity in average fertility rates in different parts of the world, ranging from just one in Cyprus to seven in Niger, noted Raconteur.

February 2019

TrendWatching identified a post-demographic "jumble" in which rising numbers of consumers sense that others out there of all ages, genders, beliefs and more can share their tastes, interests and passions. That means they may be able to increasingly embrace innovative spaces and experiences that throw everyone into the mix and promote togetherness.
Further reading:
- China’s problem is not too many children but too few - Prospect Magazine
- The World Might Actually Run Out of People - Quartz

January 2019

Life expectancy in Japan is 84 years, the highest in the world, and due to a low birth rate Japan’s population is greying fast. Nearly 30 percent of the country is older than 65. That has raised big questions about how the Japanese government is going to pay for the health care needs of its people as they age.
China’s population grew by just 5.3 million people in 2018, as the number of births declined. It’s the lowest rate of population growth since the early 1960s, when China was still reeling from a massive famine sparked by Chairman Mao’s Great Leap Forward.
The state statistics agency announced the Russian population fell by 86,700 people in 2018. It’s the third year in a row the population has fallen.
Further reading:

December 2018

Longevity is increasing and is set to put a growing population of retirees under immense stress in the coming decades as people struggle to pay for their retirement. Life expectancies have risen by an average of three years per decade since the 1940s and, while retirement ages are gradually increasing, people are spending longer not working without the savings to justify it. This has created a $70-trillion pensions timebomb in eight of the world’s largest economies, which could swell by nearly six times by 2050, warned Raconteur.
In Japan there are approximately 400,000 more deaths than births every year and over 28% of the population is older than 65, compared with 15% in America. The demographic crunch is creating labour shortages and straining public funds. To ease it, the government is encouraging women and old people to work, thinking of increasing contributions to medical bills and considering allowing in more blue-collar immigrants, but far more needs to be done, according to The Economist.
Japan’s population is ageing so quickly that there are now more adult diapers than baby diapers sold across the country each year, according to GZEROMedia.
By 2025, 75% of the workforce will be millennials. That means millennials globally will occupy not only the majority of individual contributor positions but the majority of leadership roles as well. They'll be responsible for making important decisions that affect workplace cultures and people's lives. Gallup outlined three distinctions between millennials and previous generations: millennials are connected, unconstrained and idealistic.
“Perennials,” not millennials, will trigger the next wave of talent-retention efforts, according to Quartz. Older workers are now the fastest-growing population of workers in the US.
Further reading:
- These 5 Maps Visualise Population Distribution in a Unique Way - Visual Capitalist

November 2018

Before our eyes, argued the Harvard Business Review, the world is undergoing a massive demographic transformation. In many countries, the population is getting old. Very old. Globally, the number of people age 60 and over is projected to double to more than 2 billion by 2050 and those 60 and over will outnumber children under the age of 5.
One conclusion from HBR’s research: retirement is going extinct and employers need to adapt to aging populations and shifting employment trends.
There has been a remarkable global decline in the number of children women are having, researchers told the BBC. Their report found fertility rate falls meant nearly half of countries were now facing a "baby bust" - meaning there are insufficient children to maintain their population size. The researchers said the findings were a "huge surprise". And there would be profound consequences for societies with "more grandparents than grandchildren". The study, published in the Lancet, followed trends in every country from 1950 to 2017. In 1950, women were having an average of 4.7 children in their lifetime. The fertility rate all but halved to 2.4 children per woman by last year.
In 2017, reported The Economist, the number of births in America fell to its lowest level in 30 years. The total fertility rate, which estimates the average number of children a woman can expect to have over her lifetime at current birth rates for each age, is 1.76 - below the “replacement rate” needed to keep populations stable. Implementing policies that help people combine work and parenthood, including parental leave, could halt the decline, the newspaper believes. The US drop started soon after the recession of 2007, but continued beyond the economy’s recovery. It has been particularly acute among Hispanics and urbanites, possibly because of higher rent, smaller houses and immigrants adopting American lifestyles.
China is turning grey on a scale the world has never seen, noted Quartz News, exploring what happens when the world’s largest group of baby boomers remains eager and able to work past retirement age, and why we need to redefine the role of ageing populations in society.
Africa’s urban population is expanding at 4 percent per year, nearly twice the global average, but countries on the continent aren’t experiencing the rise in prosperity typically associated with rapid urbanisation, warned GZEROMedia, adding that this is because, in contrast to the historical experience elsewhere, many of Africa’s new urban dwellers are being absorbed by the informal economy rather than higher paying manufacturing jobs.
Further reading:
- What explains America’s mysterious baby bust? - Hispanic Americans are having fewer babies, as are city-dwellers - The Economist

October 2018

Life expectancies have risen by an average of three years per decade since the 1940s and, while retirement ages are gradually increasing, people are spending longer not working without the savings to justify it. This has created a $70-trillion pensions timebomb in eight of the world’s largest economies, which could swell by nearly six times by 2050, warned Raconteur.
As of October 2018, more than half of the world is middle class. Research done under the auspices of the World Data Lab, characterises the global middle class as having enough discretionary income to buy consumer durables like fridges and motorcycles; being able to spend money on entertainment like trips to the cinema; and being fairly confident that they can weather an economic shock without falling back into extreme poverty. The more precise measure they use is earnings of between $11 and $110 per day on a 2011 purchasing power parity basis. The researchers divide the world’s population into four groups. They estimate that 600 million people are poor (living on under $1.90 per day); 3.2 billion people are financially vulnerable (living on between $1.90 and $11 per day); 3.6 billion people meet their definition of middle class and 200 million people are rich (living on more than $110 per day).
According to the Wall Street Journal, Gen Z, the generation now entering the workforce is sober, industrious and driven by money. They are also socially awkward and timid about taking the reins.
According to a study published by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation in Seattle, people in Spain will have an average lifespan of 85.8 years by 2040, while those in Japan will lag ever so slightly behind on 85.7 years.
GZEROMedia noted that, every second, five more people join the global middle class – identified as those who earn between 11 and 110 dollars a day. Around 3.6 billion people, more than half the earth’s population, count as middle class today according to a new study. The number will surpass 5 billion by 2030, with the overwhelming majority of new entrants coming from Asia.
However, both the miracles of modern medicine and public health initiatives have helped us live longer than ever before – so much so that we may, in fact, be running out of innovations to extend life further. In September 2018, the Office for National Statistics confirmed that, in the UK at least, life expectancy has stopped increasing. Beyond the UK, these gains are slowing worldwide.
When it comes to careers, just 12% of working millennials say they have their dream job already, whereas 46% of working baby boomers say they do.
A report entitled The Generation Game by financial group Sanlam UK, concluded that millennials are set to inherit some £1.2 trillion in the next 30 years, with around 5.1 million people anticipating windfalls of at least £50,000 in fixed assets.With such a volume of cash changing hands, the profile of the typical investor will certainly change, so approaches to investing will need to adapt.

September 2018

As the world’s population surges towards 8 billion people, GZEROMedia points to two massive demographic trends that will have distinct political consequences for different countries around the world.
- First, in many industrialised countries, population growth rates are stagnating or, as in Eastern Europe and parts of East Asia, falling. These countries are greying fast as the share of old folks rises.
- Meanwhile in vast reaches of Sub-Saharan Africa and parts of the Middle East, people are also living longer while at the same time youth populations are also currently exploding. By some estimates, Africa alone will account for almost all of the global population growth that occurs in this century (2 billion people in total).
For GZEROMedia, this means that many rich countries need more people, many poor countries need more jobs - more immigration flows could help both, but they’re just not politically feasible. That means that financial challenges will rise in rich countries while social pressures rise in poor ones....even before one factors in the growing impact of automation and robotics.
Meanwhile, the most populous country in the world has a surprising problem: not enough people. Although China has 1.4 billion citizens, the government is worried that it’s falling short: with too few people of working age to sustain high levels of economic growth and support retirees and too few women (while governments around the world have, with few exceptions, generally fared poorly with schemes meant to boost fertility).
New analysis of international data from 35 countries, published by the International Longevity Centre, argued in favour of a “longevity dividend”. The authors found that as life expectancy increases, so does “output per hour worked, per worker and per capita”. Yet, much of the public debate on ageing has been framed in terms of a “burden”. As populations age, governments have worried about how a swelling population of retired people will put increasing stress on pension systems and the social care sector.
The population of sub-Saharan Africa was 180m in 1950. By 2050 it will be 2.2bn, a surge that will not necessarily leave people without food, but will hamper development. The UN expects fertility rates to fall in every mainland African country over the next few decades, but at a slower pace than in other developing regions. Three things could drastically change the picture: family planning, female education and stability in the Sahel, believes The Economist.
Indeed, sub-Saharan Africa will account for 37 percent of the world’s births by 2050, according to UN forecasts, up from 27 percent today and 16 percent in the 1990s. The surging birthrate will make Africa’s population the fastest-growing on the planet in coming decades, putting pressure on the continent’s governments to provide economic opportunities, health care, and other essential services for more than a billion new citizens.
Nearly 90% of Japan’s centenarians are women. The nation just reached a record-high of 69,785 people aged 100 or older.
A study found huge differences in life expectancies across America, from 97.5 years down to 56, the same as in Somalia. The study suggests that income and race play a huge part in this inequality. It corroborates other research that shows that in America, the rich can afford to live longer,
The Broadband Commission for Sustainable Development says that the world will not even achieve 50% internet use until the end of 2018. If the world maintains current internet user growth rates - a big if 0 we won’t approach 100% global internet adoption for well over two decades. This could exacerbate the current fault lines of global inequality, warned the World Economic Forum. Internet use is overwhelmingly concentrated in advanced economies, and the biggest gaps are in the world’s poorest areas.
Sperm count in men from North America, Europe, Australia and New Zealand declined by 50-60% between 1973 and 2011, according to a new study from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. The study, which analysed data on the sperm counts of 42,935 men, found no decline in sperm counts in men from Asia, Africa and South America, although there was limited data from these areas.
If the data on sperm counts is extrapolated to its logical conclusion, men will have little or no reproductive capacity from 2060 onwards, warned The World Economic Forum. The most rational explanation for the decline in male reproductive health is the changes in the environment. Current research suggests that the male foetus is particularly susceptible to exposure to pollutants and so changes that occur early in foetal life can have a very significant effect on the adult.
The FT noted that many millennials end up at big companies. A 2016 survey by the US think-tank the Economic Innovation Group and EY found nearly two-thirds of American millennials had considered starting their own business, but only just over a fifth believed entrepreneurship was the best way to advance their career. In fact, 44% thought staying with one company and working their way up the ladder - like their parents may have done - was the preferable route.
Americans under the age of 45 have found a novel way to rebel against their elders, reported Bloomberg: they’re staying married. New data show younger couples are approaching relationships very differently from baby boomers, who married young, divorced, remarried and so on. Millennials are being pickier about who they marry, tying the knot at older ages when education, careers and finances are on track. The result is a U.S. divorce rate that dropped 18% from 2008 to 2016, according to an analysis by the University of Maryland
Further reading:
- Back off, millennials: boomers still belong at work - FT

August 2018

Japan is the only country - so far - to formally decide to make a 100-year life a national project.
Scientists at Yale have developed a blood test that can estimate a person’s life-expectancy. The test involves the analysis of nine biomarkers in the human body that indicate how long a body is likely to survive as opposed to how long it’s been out of the womb, according to The Guardian.
Russian men will still their pension age move from 60 to 65, despite complaints that life expectancy for Russian men is just 66 years old. But women will see the pension age move from 55 to 60 rather than 63.
Further reading:

July 2018

Population ageing is a major demographic challenge for humanity. Since population structures evolve slowly and predictably, the demographic, economic, environmental, and social problems of ageing have been anticipated and discussed for many decades. yet the focus of these discussions has always been the elderly population, Such a focus is, for The Lancet, quite reasonable and understandable but not entirely correct, as ageing is not exclusively about the size of the elderly population or its proportion of a population; ageing is a function of the entire age distribution of a population.
Meanwhile, the world’s oldest person died. Japanese citizen Chiyo Miyako, born on May 2, 1901, held the official record, which now passes to another 117-year-old.
Older people in the US are getting divorced more than they ever have before, with the rate of divorce among those 50 or older roughly doubling in the past 30 years. Quartz wondered whether this unprecedented rise in so-called “gray divorces” could perhaps be the beginning of a fundamental shift in the way Americans see marriage, in an era when people can expect longer lives filled with more transitions between careers, homes, jobs, skills - and possibly relationships too.
Further reading:

June 2018

China has overtaken the US in “healthy life expectancy” for the first time. Chinese newborns can expect 68.7 years of healthy life, compared with 68.5 years for American babies. American newborns can still expect to live longer overall – 78.5 years compared to 76.4 in China, but Americans are more likely to spend their later years in ill health.
The Cato Institute recently published an analysis of population, prices, and income from 1960 to 2016. Over these 56 years, world population increased by 145 per cent, from 3 billion to almost 7.5 billion. Yet, inflation adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) per person increased by 183 per cent, from $3,689 to $10,391. So, income grew 38 per cent faster than population.
The study also looked at prices of 42 natural resources from 1960 to 2016, as tracked by the World Bank. Adjusted for inflation, 19 declined in price, while 23 increased in price. Out of those 23 commodities, only three (crude oil, gold, and silver) appreciated more than GDP per person. Put differently, GDP per person grew faster than 92 per cent of the commodities measured. The overall inflation adjusted price index of the 42 commodities increased by 33 per cent over the 56 year period. However, after adjusting for the appreciation in GDP per person, commodity prices fell by 53 per cent. Humanity is therefore creating faster than it is consuming. concluded HumanProgress.
With the global population now exceeding 7 billion, National Geographic provided a broad overview of demographic trends that got us to today and will impact us tomorrow. Meanwhile, the global population is still growing by an estimated 79 million per year.
Further reading:

May 2018

Ignoring older workers is more worrisome than job-killing robots, claimed Quartz, adding that mobilising and deploying older employees is now a crucial competitive advantage.
Developed countries generate 60 percent of global GDP, but only contain around 14 percent of the world's population. of global GDP, but only contain around 14 percent of the world's population.
5 things to remember when working with millennials - SurveyMonkey
Attention Millennials: The Average Entrepreneur is This Old When They Found Their First Startup | Inc.com
Baby boomers are divorcing for surprisingly old-fashioned reasons | Aeon Ideas
Forget the £10,000—it’s time to accept that millennials aren’t sabotaging themselves | Prospect Magazine
Opinion | Go Ahead, Millennials, Destroy Us - The New York Times
Population Panic and the Reverse "Handmaid's Tale" - HumanProgress
The focus on intergenerational inequity is a delusion - FT

April 2018

In Africa and parts of Asia there is a huge demographic dividend due to a burgeoning youth market and this market offers opportunities to established higher education institutions with international strategies.

The average age of Arab heads of state is currently 72, while the average age of their people is just 25, according to The Economist.
Millennials have become the most dominant category in the USA overtaking the Baby Boomers (Pew, 2017)
'Adolescence now lasts from 10 to 24' - BBC News
17 new genetic variants linked to a longer lifespan discovered
A Half-Century of Population Growth, Increasing Prosperity, and Falling Commodity Prices - Cato Institute
Across the generations: why millennials are teaming up with the elderly - FT
Artificial Intelligence Will Affect The News We Consume. Whether That's A Good Thing Is Up To Humans. | HuffPost
Brandless, the 'Procter & Gamble for millennials' startup that sells everything for $3, is launching a pop-up - but you can't buy anything | Business Insider India
Now hiring: 60-year-old interns for startup - The Economic Times
The millennials - FT series
The quiet revolution: China’s millennial backlash - FT
These countries have the most generous pensions | World Economic Forum
Up to a third of millennials 'face renting their entire life' - BBC News
Young Londoners will have to save for nearly 20 years to afford a tiny apartment | World Economic Forum

March 2018

February 2018

January 2018

December 2017

November 2017

October 2017

August 2017

July 2017

2016

November-December

By 2020:

Over 60% of world's population is will live in cities that are networked and integrated.
The urban population is expected to grow globally from 3.6 billion (as of 2010) to 4.3 billion (in 2020) and to 5 billion in 2030.
The size of the global middle class could increase from 1.8 billion people to 3.2 billion by 2020 and to 4.9 billion by 2030.
At least 70 million new consumers are expected to enter the global middle class each year.
90 percent of the world's population over 6 years old will have a mobile phone.
Millennials will account for one-third of the adult population by 2020 and 75 percent of the workforce by 2025.