What May Change? - 2019

Please see below an evolving set of forecasts for 2019. This is work in progress, due for completion before the end of January 2019. 

Introduction

• Will 2019 be the new 1929? Rising debt, falling consumer spending, and rising interest rates paint a not-so-rosy economic picture for the coming year. For a holistic view of 2019 forecasts, see The Economist's World in 2019.
• However, all such forecasts should be treated with caution. Indeed, Quartz believes that "all 2019 predictions are nonsense", and that the prediction industrial complex is built on publicity, ambiguity, and never holding anyone to account.
• Nevertheless, we hope you find some interesting reading below, and please let us know if you have any additional good 2019 forecast links to share with our EMEIA Growth Markets community. For now, we classify our forecasts into four main areas: Economics, Geopolitics, Technology and wider Society,

Economics

• For The Economist, the arrival of the new year has failed to boost the performance of the markets, as concerns deepen about the state of the world economy. With the Federal Reserve tightening monetary policy and a trade war under way, both US and China will grow more slowly in 2019 than last year. Europe presents an even gloomier picture. Lightening the mood is India, which is set to be the fastest-growing big economy once more.
• Indeed, Chatham House noted that, following the ‘synchronised global upswing’ noted in recent years by the IMF, economists are now recording evidence of a synchronised global slowdown. With divisions between the US, Europe and China making coordinated economic collaboration unlikely, it is unclear how the world’s governments will approach the financial challenges that potentially lie ahead.
• The BBC pointed to clouds on the economic horizon for 2019:
  • Stock markets had a rough ride at the end of 2018. Many recorded strong gains early in the year that were more than reversed. Overall it was the worst year for global markets (and many individual ones) since the financial crisis.
  • Lower share prices can be a warning sign of wider economic problems ahead, sometimes even a recession.
  • Europe has problems. The economic data for the third quarter of the year showed a marked slowdown in growth in the eurozone. Some of this may be a very short-term stumble due to new procedures for testing vehicle emissions, which have disrupted the motor industry. But it could be the start of a more significant loss of momentum in a recovery that was never particularly strong.
  • Growth in the US is likely to be slower. The surge in 2018 reflected President Trump's tax cuts. There is some debate about whether the impact will last. Is it a one-off effect that will fade like a sugar rush, or will it have a lasting impact on incentives to work and invest?
  • China also has things to worry about - in the shape of a rising burden of public and private-sector debt, which could yet undermine financial stability. Surveys of business showed that new orders for manufacturers declined in December, for the first time in two years.
  • In What to expect from China in 2019, McKinsey argued that the next stages of China’s transition away from economic equilibrium with the US will likely create volatility in market growth and require conservatism in some areas and bold moves in others.
• Key market themes to watch in 2019. From gloomy bonds to a renminbi wild card: the FT picked its key issues for the coming year.
• By Sector:
  • Auto & Mobility Trends In 2019 is a CB Insights an analysis of emerging auto and mobility trends. 
  • Food And Beverage Trends In 2019
  • Insurance Trends In 2019
  • Manufacturing Trends In 2019
  • Retail Trends In 2019 is an analysis of emerging retail trends from CB Insights. 
• Further reading: 
  • Italy’s 2019 financing challenge: in charts - FT
  • Prepare for a synchronised global economic slowdown in 2019 - FT
  • Planning for growth in 2019 - Source

Trade

• The coming year is shaping up to be one of preferential trade deals, where two or a group of countries agree on their own trading rules, believes The Economist. As well as the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, and an EU-Japan deal, the US is aiming to strike several such accords. But do these act as stepping stones towards broader trade liberalisation? Or do they distort trade and divide the world into competing trade regions?

Geopolitics

• Chatham House examined the International Crisis Group’s Ten Conflicts to Watch in 2019, and asked what common trends and themes connect some of the challenges to international security, what are the overarching regional and geopolitical rivalries driving conflict and what implications for international security will the Trump administration’s America First policy have for a rules-based international order, especially considering Russia and China’s increasingly assertive foreign policies? 
• In terms of risk, 2019 could turn out to be the year the world falls apart, warned GZEROMedia. Tail risks created by bad actors inflicting damage that then create an escalatory cycle are higher than they've been at any point since 1998. But for now, all such risks remain low-likelihood events. More likely, and despite increasingly worrisome headlines, 2019 is poised to be a reasonably good year and not a particularly politically risky year. But GZEROMedia warned further that the world is setting itself up for trouble down the road. Big trouble. And that's in itself top risk.
• Further reading: 
  • FT correspondents' predictions for 2019

Society

• Futurist predictions for 2019:
  • There will be increasing tension between technology giants vs. government
  • Economic protectionism will be rife, and the great global AI ethics debates will begin.
  • The fight for Africa will heat up (will China or America win the battle for natural resources, water supply, global energy, and how will big technology companies capture the next billion platform users?)
• The 2019 Topics & Trends Report from Facebook IQ shared insights on the many topics of conversation that grew on Facebook in 2018 and what they suggest will matter in the year ahead. By understanding which topics are seeing growth on our platform, marketers can anticipate potential shifts in the world around us, including the foods people eat, products they buy, media they consume, physical activities they engage in and ways they spend their time.
• Vox made 16 big predictions about 2019, from Trump’s impeachment to the rise of AI.
• 2019 could be the year we stop throwing away ridiculous amounts of food (Huff Post).
• Fjord's trend book argued that we stand at a technological, political and environmental inflection point in 2019.
• Trend Watching identified big five emerging consumer trends for 2019.
• What will people care about in 2019? A combination of identity and data, claimed will.i.am in an opinion piece for The Economist. In the past few years “data monarchs” such as Facebook and Google have grown rich at the expense of people who are not fully aware of how their data are used. To overcome this, the musician believes that a new generation of technology firms should pay to use the data generated by their customers, and make their terms fully transparent.
• Further reading: 
  • 5 things for humanitarians to watch out for in 2019 - World Economic Forum
  • Fire, Floods and Famine: The Pessimist’s Guide to 2019 - Bloomberg
  • These are the biggest risks facing our world in 2019 - World Economic Forum
  • Top Business Trends Employees Will Research in 2019 - getabstract

Technology

• Six predictions for the tech industry in 2019 and beyond - FT  (CCS Insight expects driverless cars to be banned in at least three countries by next year).
• Microsoft's list of 10 tech trends for 2019 covered, inter alia, disinformation, privacy, the need for "digital diplomacy" to counter cross-border cyber attacks and the growing ethical issues around AI.
• Gartner Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2019. Blockchain, quantum computing, augmented analytics and AI are some of the Gartner Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends that will drive disruption.
• Top Tech Trends In 2019 - CB Insights. Technology is now central to every industry — from building construction to healthcare administration to food production.
• Five Tech Trends to Follow in 2019 - Andreessen Horowitz. Andreessen Horowitz, the iconic venture capital firm based in Silicon Valley, identified five tech trends they will follow in 2019
• Tech Trends 2019 by frog design. After 50 years of designing new possible futures, frog continues to look ahead at how today’s emerging technologies will affect our lives tomorrow.
• The Future 100: 2019 - JWT Intelligence. Trends and change to watch in 2019.
• Top 10 Technology Trends in 2019 Predicted By Alibaba. Machine intelligence has already been generating great impacts on our life while we are still used to the era shaped largely by information revolution and mobile internet. Advanced technologies, functioning like “magics”, are developed based on rules and trends spotted by human beings. Today, Alibaba DAMO Academy published The Top 10 Technology Trends in 2019. We hope that by grasping the pace of revolution of technologies, we can make better use of these “magics” and be in charge of our own future.
• Regaining trust is the top issue for tech in 2019, claimed Quartz. Consumers, lawmakers, and investors are more sceptical of tech companies than they’ve been in years.
• In Top Tech Trends In 2019, CB Insights argued that technology is now central to every industry - from building construction to healthcare administration to food production and looked at the top tech trends poised to reshape industries in 2019.
• The biggest tech trends of 2019, according to top experts - Fast Company AI, AR, and 5G tech may set the stage for some massive tectonic shifts in tech and culture.
• 9 tech and innovation trends for 2019 - ZDNet. Throughout 2018, trends, cultural shifts, and consumer behaviours have been rapidly evolving. Innovation and uprising against tech giants continues to disrupt the status quo. But what’s in store for 2019?
• Altimeter's annual “State of Digital Transformation” research explored how businesses transformed in 2018 and their goals for 2019. This year, digital transformation is maturing into an enterprise-wide movement. It's modernising how companies work and compete and helping them effectively adapt and grow in an evolving digital economy.
• Further reading:
  • All the Things That Robots Will Do in 2019 - they’ll load your dishwasher, make you pizza and keep you safe - Medium
  • 10 Tech and Industry 2019 Predictions That You Will Read Everywhere - Forbes
  • These are the five hottest gadget trends for 2019 - Technology Review

Artificial Intelligence

• In What does 2019 hold for AI, VB pointed to approaches requiring less training data; a focus on tackling operationalising AI; and increased conversations on the social and ethical considerations of building AI systems. 
• In AI predictions for 2019, VentureBeat spoke with Google Brain cofounder Andrew Ng, Fast Forward Labs founder Hilary Mason, Facebook AI Research founder Yann LeCun, and Accenture responsible AI global lead Dr. Rumman Chowdhury about key milestones of 2018 and what lies ahead for 2019.
• 5 AI Trends To Watch Out For In 2019 from Forbes argued that machine learning and artificial intelligence will become the key technology trends of 2019. From business applications to IT support, AI is going to impact the industry significantly.
• 5 AI Trends to Watch in 2019 from Inc.com took a look into the future of AI technology.
• six real AI dangers to watch out for in 2019 from MIT Technology Review warned that last year a string of controversies revealed a darker (and dumber) side to artificial intelligence.

Blockchain

• Top 7 Blockchain Technology Trends to Watch in 2019 from Hackernoon noted that the evolution of blockchain for the past few years have been breathtaking and explored blockchain technology trends to watch out in 2019.
• In Blockchain Trends In 2019 CB Insights examined 18 of the biggest blockchain trends, covering everything from bitcoin mining to security tokens to smart contract platforms. We looked at the industry adoption and market strength of these trends, categorising them as necessary, experimental, threatening, or transitory (NExTT).
• Blockchain and Cryptocurrency Trends for 2019 outlined ComputerWorld's op predictions for blockchain and crypto in 2019.
• 4 Major Blockchain Trends to Watch for in 2019 from Forbes highlighted the major developments in the digital asset business to watch for in 2019.

Cybersecurity

• 2018 was full of cybersecurity disasters, from the revelation of security flaws in billions of microchips to massive data breaches and attacks using malicious software that locks down computer systems until a ransom is paid, usually in the form of an untraceable digital currency. 
• We’re going to see more mega-breaches and ransomware attacks in 2019, warned MIT. Planning to deal with these and other established risks, like threats to web-connected consumer devices and critical infrastructure such as electrical grids and transport systems, will be a top priority for security teams. But cyber-defenders should be paying attention to new threats, too.