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What May Change? - 2019

2019

 

Please see below an evolving set of forecasts for 2019. This is work in progress, due for completion before the end of January 2019. 

 

Introduction

  • Will 2019 be the new 1929? Rising debt, falling consumer spending, and rising interest rates paint a not-so-rosy economic picture for the coming year. For a holistic view of 2019 forecasts, see The Economist's World in 2019.
  • However, all such forecasts should be treated with caution. Indeed, Quartz believes that "all 2019 predictions are nonsense", and that the prediction industrial complex is built on publicity, ambiguity, and never holding anyone to account.
  • Nevertheless, we hope you find some interesting reading below, and please let us know if you have any additional good 2019 forecast links to share with our EMEIA Growth Markets community. For now, we classify our forecasts into four main areas: Economics, Geopolitics, Technology and wider Society,

 

Economics

 

Trade

  • The coming year is shaping up to be one of preferential trade deals, where two or a group of countries agree on their own trading rules, believes The Economist. As well as the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, and an EU-Japan deal, the US is aiming to strike several such accords. But do these act as stepping stones towards broader trade liberalisation? Or do they distort trade and divide the world into competing trade regions?

 

Geopolitics

  • Chatham House examined the International Crisis Group’s Ten Conflicts to Watch in 2019, and asked what common trends and themes connect some of the challenges to international security, what are the overarching regional and geopolitical rivalries driving conflict and what implications for international security will the Trump administration’s America First policy have for a rules-based international order, especially considering Russia and China’s increasingly assertive foreign policies? 
  • In terms of risk, 2019 could turn out to be the year the world falls apart, warned GZEROMedia. Tail risks created by bad actors inflicting damage that then create an escalatory cycle are higher than they've been at any point since 1998. But for now, all such risks remain low-likelihood events. More likely, and despite increasingly worrisome headlines, 2019 is poised to be a reasonably good year and not a particularly politically risky year. But GZEROMedia warned further that the world is setting itself up for trouble down the road. Big trouble. And that's in itself top risk.
  • Further reading: 

 

Society

 

Technology

 

Artificial Intelligence

  • In What does 2019 hold for AI, VB pointed to approaches requiring less training data; a focus on tackling operationalising AI; and increased conversations on the social and ethical considerations of building AI systems. 
  • In AI predictions for 2019, VentureBeat spoke with Google Brain cofounder Andrew Ng, Fast Forward Labs founder Hilary Mason, Facebook AI Research founder Yann LeCun, and Accenture responsible AI global lead Dr. Rumman Chowdhury about key milestones of 2018 and what lies ahead for 2019.
  • 5 AI Trends To Watch Out For In 2019 from Forbes argued that machine learning and artificial intelligence will become the key technology trends of 2019. From business applications to IT support, AI is going to impact the industry significantly.
  • 5 AI Trends to Watch in 2019 from Inc.com took a look into the future of AI technology.
  • six real AI dangers to watch out for in 2019 from MIT Technology Review warned that last year a string of controversies revealed a darker (and dumber) side to artificial intelligence.

 

Blockchain

 

Cybersecurity

  • 2018 was full of cybersecurity disasters, from the revelation of security flaws in billions of microchips to massive data breaches and attacks using malicious software that locks down computer systems until a ransom is paid, usually in the form of an untraceable digital currency. 
  • We’re going to see more mega-breaches and ransomware attacks in 2019, warned MIT. Planning to deal with these and other established risks, like threats to web-connected consumer devices and critical infrastructure such as electrical grids and transport systems, will be a top priority for security teams. But cyber-defenders should be paying attention to new threats, too.

 

 

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